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Where to spot fiscal risks and how to think about US-China economic competition

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Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing warns the potential threat to fiscal positions from higher rates is “perhaps the most important question hanging over the outlook for the next couple of years”. 

In this episode, he speaks to Head of Research Vicky Redwood and Andrew Kenningham, Chief Europe Economist, about the size and scope of that threat, including what governments need to do to keep markets onside, whether Italian and US debt positions are particular causes for concern and how a busy year for elections could shape the market’s perceptions of which issuers are at risk.

Plus, after the FT’s Martin Wolf highlighted our unique analysis of global economic fracturing, Neil talks to Chief Asia Economist Mark Williams about why investors should be considering US-China competition in terms of blocs of aligned countries and territories rather than as individual economies. Mark shows how that economic competition looks very different when measured by these blocs, but also highlights the risks to our view that fracturing will remain a relatively benign process.