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Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth gathered pace in April, with the annual growth rate hitting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. But despite the pick-up in house price expectations, we don’t think a self-reinforcing bubble will form, nor do we expect values will crash. Rather, we think rising mortgage rates and stretched affordability will cool house price growth to around 7% y/y by the end of the year.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr.)

House price growth is finally showing signs of slowing, in line with measures of housing market activity which peaked at the start of the year. Soaring mortgage rates are shutting some buyers out of the market and forcing others to cut their budgets. While a tight market argues against a house price crash, a small fall to around -5% y/y by mid-2023 now looks likely.

28 June 2022

US Housing Market Update

The anatomy of a housing market downturn

Measures of housing market activity and prices tend to follow a predictable sequence in downturns. In this Update we highlight the key US and UK variables that clients should follow to track the housing downturn and identify turning points. With most indicators already softening in both countries, it is just a matter of time before house prices fall. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this US Housing Update to clients of our UK Housing Service.

24 June 2022

US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (May)

New home sales rose in May, bucking widespread signs of a housing market slowdown. But given the volatility in the data we wouldn’t put too much weight on one month’s reading. After all, new home sales are not immune to higher financing costs and survey measures point to a fall in sales over the next couple of months. While a healthier inventory means the new home market will outperform existing sales, we still expect a fall in sales to around 630,000 annualised by end-2022.

24 June 2022

More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Jun.)

Home purchase mortgage applications fell back again in June, leaving them down 23% compared to the 11-year high seen in January. Tight inventory and stretched affordability are largely responsible for the recent downward trend in housing demand and we expect these factors will persist throughout the year.

7 July 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (May.)

Employment growth in May was positive in all metros, largely driven by gains in the leisure & hospitality sector. This benefited Orlando, Los Angeles and Las Vegas the most, but still left employment around 10% below its pre-pandemic peak in the worst affected metros.

30 June 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Student accommodation not set to see a rapid rebound

The student accommodation sector faces high levels of uncertainty for the fall 2021 academic year. In our view, demand for student housing will rebound from last year, but fall short of its pre-pandemic peak. Overall, we expect vacancy to nudge higher and rental values to edge back this year.

25 June 2021
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