US Commercial Property

Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner

Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a dwindling supply pipeline to limit rental declines over the next few years more so than in the other major metros.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Update

Downtown offices not losing out everywhere

National office data suggest that suburban office markets have significantly outperformed downtown offices since the onset of the pandemic. But metro-level data point to a more nuanced picture in which metros reliant on commuting have seen downtown areas hit hardest, but those with a decent share of reverse commuters have seen a more balanced picture. The next 12 months will help to determine whether this is a temporary or longer-term factor.

18 October 2021

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Sep.)

Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fourth consecutive month in September, thanks to net lending turning a corner in the residential sector and accelerating in the commercial sector.

15 October 2021

US Commercial Property Update

Four likely winners in retail

The retail sector appears to be turning a corner, and we think that convenience-oriented Neighbourhood and Community (N&C) centres, out-of-town retail, “destination”-type malls and retail located in “desirable” southern metros are likely to be the sector’s winners over the next few years.

8 October 2021

More from Sam Hall

US Commercial Property Data Response

US Metro Employment (Jul.)

Job growth showed no sign of slowing in July, with gains in the leisure & hospitality sector continuing to drive the recovery. This benefitted Boston, Washington D.C. and New York City significantly, but still left employment in the six major metros 5%-10% below their pre-COVID levels.

1 September 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Mortgage Applications (Aug.)

With the share of households seeing now as a good time to buy at a record low, home purchase mortgage applications fell for the fifth consecutive month in August, leaving them down 25% from January’s 11-year high. But with the pace of declines slowing, we suspect mortgage applications will soon flatten out.

1 September 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jun)

House price growth surged above 18% y/y in June, setting record highs on both the Case-Shiller and FHFA measures. However, demand has fallen back since the start of the year, and the timelier Common Haus Price Index points to a slowdown in the second half of the year. We therefore expect annual growth will fall back from 18.6% y/y in June to 10% y/y by end-2021.

31 August 2021
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