Inflation to fall sharply in 2022 despite higher utility prices

Inflation to fall sharply in 2022 despite higher utility prices

Given the recent surge in wholesale gas and electricity prices to record highs, it looks likely that Ofgem will opt for another chunky hike to the price cap on households’ utility bills next April. While this will hit household real incomes, it doesn’t change our view that inflation is set to drop back sharply next year.
Bethany Beckett UK Economist
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UK Economics Weekly

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Some tentative evidence may already be emerging that the Omicron COVID-19 variant may have softened economic activity. It’s less clear what it means for inflation and there’s a risk that it exacerbates current price pressures. That’s why we think the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on 16th December will be a closer call than markets seem to believe. They are pricing in just a 20-30% chance of a hike from 0.10% to 0.25%.

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UK Economics Update

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