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Global Aluminium Production (Apr.)

After a weak start to the year, it looks increasingly as though a rebound in China’s output will more than offset lower production in Russia and Europe so that global production will rise a touch this year. That said, supply in the world ex China will remain constrained, even assuming higher exports from China.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
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More from Metals

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (May)

Global steel production continued to pick up in May, led by higher output in India and China, which more than offset the ongoing decline in Europe’s production. The rise in input costs, efforts to curb carbon emissions and softer demand suggest that there will be only limited gains in global steel output this year.

22 June 2022

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (May)

Global aluminium production has increased steadily since the start of the year in large part owing to a rebound in China’s output. At the same time, demand is relatively subdued, which suggests that aluminium prices have further to fall in the second half of the year. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

20 June 2022

Industrial Metals Update

Chinese refined output will only plug some of the gap

Robust Chinese refined metal output, alongside subdued domestic demand, has combined with constrained refined output elsewhere to provide greater export opportunities for China. But there are limits on the extent to which Chinese metal can fill the shortfall elsewhere. This is one reason why we expect industrial metals prices to remain historically high for some time yet. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

16 June 2022

More from Caroline Bain

Commodities Update

Auto sector woes to weigh on natural rubber prices

After a post-pandemic rebound in 2021, we expect growth in global demand for natural rubber (NR) to slow this year in tandem with a downturn in industrial activity, notably in the NR-intensive auto sector. That said, the market will remain in a deficit and higher energy prices will act as a floor under prices.

18 May 2022

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs that sky-high prices are deterring demand for petroleum products, which should continue for some time yet.

11 May 2022

Energy Update

Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain

News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year. The heightened competition for gas imports suggests that prices will remain high at least until spring 2023. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Emerging Europe Service. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

11 May 2022
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