Colombia’s downturn worse than we feared

The weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP figure, coupled with signs that Q2 is shaping up to be worse than we had initially thought, has prompted us to revise down our estimate for the fall in Colombian GDP this year. We now expect a contraction of 7.0%.
Quinn Markwith Latin America Economist
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Latin America Data Response

Chile Consumer Prices (Nov.)

The further rise in Chile’s inflation to 6.7% y/y – the highest rate since late 2008 – will keep pressure on the central bank to deliver further aggressive monetary tightening. We expect another 125bp policy rate hike, to 4.00%, at its meeting next week.

7 December 2021

Latin America Economics Weekly

Central banks and Omicron, Colombia CA risks

The emergence of the Omicron variant presents a key risk to economic recoveries in the region, although the experience from the latest virus wave in the region provides a reason to think it will not result in a permanent hit to output. In the meantime, central banks across the region will remain focussed on tackling high inflation with further rate hikes. Otherwise, data this week showed that Colombia's current account deficit widened even further in Q3 and the recent drop in oil prices will add to the growing external vulnerabilities there.

3 December 2021

Latin America Data Response

Brazil Industrial Production (Oct.)

The surprise 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in October and weakness in the surveys for last month provide early evidence that the contraction in the economy last quarter may be followed by another q/q drop in GDP in Q4.

3 December 2021

More from Quinn Markwith

Latin America Economics Update

Four questions on Peru’s (latest) political crisis

Votes due this week by Peru’s congress on whether to impeach the president and to censure (remove) the finance minister will likely be close calls and could leave a power vacuum. That said, history suggests that the near-term economic and financial market impact will be limited. And if anything, an opposition takeover of the government may result in looser fiscal policy which would be a positive for the economic recovery over the coming years. In this Update we answer four key questions on the political situation.

14 September 2020

Latin America Economics Update

Chile: Stronger recovery to keep BCC on the side-lines

Chile’s economy is recovering more quickly than we had previously expected and, as a result, we are revising up our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -5.5% (previously -7.0%). The stronger rebound has eased pressure on the central bank to loosen monetary policy further – we now expect policy settings to remain unchanged into 2022. This view is still more dovish than the path discounted in financial markets.

10 September 2020

Latin America Economics Update

Peru in dire straits, but reasons for cautious optimism

The latest data suggest that, after one of the world’s steepest economic declines in Q2, Peru’s recovery is already stalling against a backdrop of high and rising new coronavirus cases. But for those willing to squint hard enough, there are some reasons to be positive about the 12-18 month outlook.

2 September 2020
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