EZ Unemployment (Oct.)

While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery takes a breather over the next couple of months, just as it did when restrictions were in place at the start of 2021.
Stefan Posea Assistant Economist
Continue reading

More from Europe

European Economics Update

How big a deal is the Ukraine crisis for the euro-zone?

A Russian military invasion of Ukraine would adversely affect the euro-zone economy by further disrupting the market for energy, pushing up inflation and reducing households’ real incomes. However, any economic fallout would probably be fairly small and short-lived and other factors, not least the course of the pandemic, will continue to have much more influence on the economy. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this European Economics Update to clients of our Energy Service.

25 January 2022

European Economics Update

Rising house prices strengthen ECB hawks’ case

Euro-zone inflation would be even further above target if owner-occupied housing costs were included in the region’s headline measure. Their formal inclusion won’t take place for a few years yet, but the ECB has pledged to take them into account in the meantime. On balance, this points to slightly tighter policy. Euro-zone Drop-In: Why the ECB will be laying the groundwork for rate hikes in 2023. Join Andrew Kenningham and the Europe team for a discussion about their Q1 euro-zone Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, 1 Feb at 09:00 EST/14:00 GMT. Registration here.

25 January 2022

European Data Response

German Ifo Survey (January)

The increase in the Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in January provides more evidence that, after contracting in late 2021, conditions have stabilised at the start of the year. With disruption from the Omicron wave likely to ease in the coming weeks, we think German GDP will increase in Q1. Euro-zone Drop-In: Why the ECB will be laying the groundwork for rate hikes in 2023. Join Andrew Kenningham and the Europe team for a discussion about their Q1 euro-zone Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, 1 Feb at 09:00 EST/14:00 GMT. Registration here.

25 January 2022

More from Stefan Posea

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Sep.)

While the fall in euro-zone unemployment in September brings the jobless rate back to its pre-pandemic level, employment has not fully recovered. But the economy is growing strongly and the vast majority of those who left the labour force are set to return, so the labour market is likely to recover further in Q4.

3 November 2021

European Data Response

EC Survey (October)

The EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for October increased a touch, but the details show that expectations for production declined slightly, probably due to the worsening supply chain problems. So there is nothing here to change our view that economic growth will slow sharply in Q4.

28 October 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (Aug)

The large decline in euro-zone industrial production in August was largely due to supply shortages affecting production, particularly in the German auto sector. While demand is still strong, prolonged supply shortages and high input prices suggest manufacturing will continue to struggle in Q4.

13 October 2021
↑ Back to top