EZ Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMIs (Aug.)

The fall in euro-zone unemployment in July appears to be down to a decline in the overall labour force rather than an increase in employment, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a long way to go. But with hiring activity increasing, the jobless rate should continue to fall.
Jessica Hinds Europe Economist
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European Economics Weekly

ECB’s line on inflation contrasts with the Fed’s

In contrast to those at the US Fed, ECB policymakers are not ready to retire their argument that the current bout of high inflation is temporary. This reflects the significant difference in inflationary pressures between the two economies. Next week, we will get the detailed breakdown of November’s German inflation data, which will shed more light on the stronger-than-expected outturn. Meanwhile, with less than two weeks to go until December’s ECB meeting, the Governing Council appears to have reached a consensus on some aspects of its asset purchase programmes. But comments from Christine Lagarde today suggest that it will avoid making any long-term commitments.

3 December 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone Retail Sales (Oct) & Final PMIs (Nov.)

Euro-zone retail sales have levelled off since June, but rising Covid cases and the return of restrictions are likely to weigh on sales and other components of consumption in the coming months.

3 December 2021

European Data Response

EZ Unemployment (Oct.)

While labour market conditions continued to improve in October, the recent deterioration of the Covid situation and increased uncertainty due to the Omicron variant are likely to mean the recovery takes a breather over the next couple of months, just as it did when restrictions were in place at the start of 2021.

2 December 2021

More from Jessica Hinds

European Economics Focus

Getting a handle on euro-zone wage data

Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the underlying trend in earnings. For now, though, measures of spare capacity suggest that wage growth is likely to remain around 2.0-2.5%, which has in the past not been enough to push consumer price inflation to 2%.

31 August 2021

European Economics Weekly

Business surveys point to continued recovery

The business surveys for August published this week provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economy is continuing to grow at a decent pace. And the decline in the forward-looking components is not too worrying since the pace of growth was always likely to tail off as the economy got closer to "normal". Next week, we expect flash inflation data for August to show big rises in the headline and core rates, due to base effects related to the timing of summer sales last year.

27 August 2021

European Data Response

Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2)

The strong growth in the euro-zone GDP in Q2 is likely to be repeated in Q3 despite the spread of the Delta variant, and should bring the economy back towards its pre-virus size in the coming months. But the southern economies continue to lag, with travel restrictions still holding back their tourism sectors.

17 August 2021
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