Europe Economic Outlook Deeper recession and more persistent inflation The euro-zone is on the cusp of a significant recession due to a severe squeeze on households’ real incomes, rising interest rates and weak external demand. We now think GDP will fall for the next... 20th October 2022 · 30 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hawks dominate, French strikes fuel pay pressure Even the hawks on the ECB Governing Council have seemed reluctant to call publicly for a 100bp hike at the Bank’s late-October meeting, but we still think that is the most likely decision and expect... 14th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden struggles, Danish central bank intervenes A raft of economic data for Sweden, including August’s GDP indicator, published this week added to the evidence that its economy is slowing and heading for recession this winter. Meanwhile, Denmark’s... 7th October 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recession will be deeper than most expect A recession has looked unavoidable for some time and we now think it will be deeper than most anticipate. Manufacturing output is already declining and services activity is slowing. What’s more... 6th October 2022 · 11 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Low Swiss inflation will keep pressure off SNB The low level of inflation in Switzerland compared to the euro-zone mainly reflects smaller contributions from energy and food. But core inflation is lower too, helped by the exchange rate and... 5th October 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (Sep.) The final euro-zone PMIs for September suggested that price pressures in the region are not yet starting to ease, even as activity appears to be in decline. We think some economies, including Germany... 5th October 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Switzerland CPI (Sep.) & Manufacturing PMIs (Sep.) The fall in the headline rate of inflation in Switzerland in September suggests that price pressures may have peaked there, which is consistent with the message from the latest business surveys... 3rd October 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) The jump in the euro-zone’s headline inflation rate in September into double digits will be of grave concern to the ECB. Despite the weak economic outlook, we expect the Bank to prioritise inflation... 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash Inflation (Sep.) & Unemployment (Aug.) 30th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update France adds a pinch of prudence to its fiscal support The UK government has not been alone in announcing new fiscal measures in recent days. The French government’s plan to stabilise the budget deficit at 5% of GDP next year looks optimistic, given its... 27th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly A trio of hawkish central banks In what has proven to be an action-packed week for major central banks, those in the Nordics and the SNB kept their end up and delivered historically large rate rises. And despite the surveys... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB adds to crop of bumper rate rises The Swiss National Bank is likely to follow today’s 75bp rate rise with further increases at its next couple of meetings to keep a lid on inflationary pressure. But we still think investors have got... 22nd September 2022 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Sep. 2022) 22nd September 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stable inflation expectations little comfort for Riksbank Even as Swedish headline inflation surged again in August, with the core rate hitting its highest level since late 1991, the stability of long-term inflation expectations will provide some comfort to... 16th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Bumper rate hikes on the way Next week, we expect the Swiss National Bank, Riksbank and Norges Bank to raise interest rates aggressively. The SNB and the Riksbank both look set to raise rates by 75bp, and we would not rule out a... 15th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) The pick-up in euro-zone hourly wage costs in Q2, along with a big upward revision to Q1, on the face of it suggests that pay pressures in the region continued to build. The detail provides a more... 15th September 2022 · 2 mins read
