Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Price pressures to keep central banks in hawkish mood Consumer price inflation has continued to accelerate in Switzerland and across the Nordics, adding to the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy more aggressively. In Switzerland... 14th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (July) July’s 2.3% monthly decline in euro-zone industrial production was largely due to a big fall in Ireland’s output. But even excluding Ireland, production decreased in July, with energy-intensive... 14th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions on Europe’s energy crisis response European policymakers have been discussing how to tackle skyrocketing energy prices in the region to ease the financial pain for households and firms this winter. In this Update, we answer five key... 12th September 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Recession on the cards, but ECB goes big regardless The ECB delivered a chunky 75bp rate hike this week and signalled more large rate rises are to come even as it acknowledged that the euro-zone economy was likely to fall into recession. That’s... 9th September 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Chart Pack ECB to press on with rate hikes as gas crisis intensifies European gas prices have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past month, rising to a peak of €340/MWh before falling back to around €240 to leave them about 50% higher than at the time of the ECB’s... 7th September 2022 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Retail Sales (Jul.) & Final PMIs (Aug.) The small rise in euro-zone retail sales volumes in July only partly reversed the previous month’s big fall, and with consumer confidence very weak and the final PMI surveys for August suggesting that... 5th September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone unemployment to rise, but not surge We expect the looming recession in the euro-zone to cause the region’s unemployment rate to rise to 7.5% by the middle of next year. But this would still be historically low and is unlikely to be... 1st September 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (July) The fall in the euro-zone unemployment rate in July to a record low of 6.6% is likely to be as good as it gets. The region faces a difficult winter and recession looms. So the jobless rate is likely... 1st September 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (Aug.) The further decline in the EC Economic Sentiment Indicator in August echoes the message from the other business surveys that the euro-zone economy is on the verge of recession as sky-high energy... 30th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Soaring energy costs, wage inflation trending higher The surge in natural gas prices amid supply concerns this week piled on the economic gloom for the euro-zone and we have revised our growth forecasts down further. But price pressures remain intense... 26th August 2022 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update State bearing the cost of lower French energy bills France’s low energy inflation rate relative to those of its neighbours reflects government policies that have limited the increase in retail prices even as wholesale prices have risen. This will... 24th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 reflected the re-opening of the services sector and was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest... 17th August 2022 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway faces its own energy crisis While Norway is not directly in the firing line from the reduction in Russia’s gas exports, it has now got its own problems with low water levels in its hydro reservoirs. This may add a bit to Norway... 12th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Slowing sharply amid high inflation Euro-zone GDP increased by more than we had expected in Q2 as reopening effects boosted the services sector, particularly in the southern countries. But things have already taken a turn for the worse... 4th August 2022 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Update Weakness in Spanish household spending to persist Household consumption has been weaker in Spain than in other big euro-zone economies, reflecting the slow rebound in tourism, more limited fiscal support and higher inflation. The latter is set to... 28th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The further decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) in July adds to the evidence that the German economy is on the brink of a recession as high energy prices and worries about energy... 25th July 2022 · 2 mins read
