Europe Economics Spare capacity in labour market mutes wage pressures We now expect the euro-zone economy to grow more quickly this year than the consensus or the ECB expects. Inflation too will be higher than others are forecasting as supply shortages persist into the... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Strong rebound and temporary rise in inflation The euro-zone is on the way to an almost full recovery. We expect Germany to regain its pre-pandemic level of activity later this year and the tourist-dependent southern countries to do so next year... 16th July 2021 · 33 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Sweden Consumer Prices (June) The further fall in Swedish headline inflation in June is at odds with the recent data from the US and the UK, but came as no surprise given the recent drop in electricity prices. And with non-energy... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Activity taking off as hospitality reopens The economy has continued to rebound strongly as governments have lifted almost all restrictions on retail and restaurants and eased rules on foreign travel. Restaurant bookings are back above pre... 7th July 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Final PMIs (June) The PMIs point to the euro-zone economy recovering strongly in June and provide evidence that price pressures are now spilling over into the services sector, even in the periphery. Nevertheless, we... 5th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (May) & Final Mfg PMIs (Jun.) The big fall in euro-zone unemployment in May highlights that the re-opening of many services sector firms in that month has boosted hiring activity. And with a strong recovery now underway, it now... 1st July 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update EU vaccine passport won’t spark surge in tourism The EU’s digital Covid certificate, which is being launched tomorrow, will have very little impact on European tourism this year. Non-essential travel is already possible, but most adults are not... 30th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EC Survey (June) Economic sentiment in the euro-zone improved sharply in June as restrictions were lifted further. Although industrial confidence was flattered by low levels of stocks, presumably relating to supply... 29th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly EZ economy bounces back, but ECB doves hold sway The uniformly strong surveys for June suggest that the euro-zone economy is recovering at a decent pace from the lockdowns earlier in the year. That might prompt some re-opening inflation – data next... 25th June 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Update Travel restrictions pour cold water on Spanish tourism Lingering restrictions on international travel to control the spread of the Delta variant mean that Spanish foreign tourist revenues this year will probably be only half what they were in 2019. That... 24th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update No-Frexit Le Pen would still be a step back for France Marine Le Pen’s RN party is likely to do well in French regional elections this month, a key test ahead of next year’s presidential election. A Le Pen presidency would no longer entail a “Frexit” but... 17th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.) The further rise in euro-zone industrial production in April suggests that the sector is continuing to recover. Supply disruptions look set to drag on for a while yet, constraining the sector’s... 14th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth outlook improving, but ECB too optimistic The euro-zone’s growth outlook is improving thanks to the acceleration in the vaccine rollout and the re-opening of the economy. However, we were surprised at the size of the upward revision to the... 11th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway & Sweden Consumer Prices (May) Inflation in Norway and Sweden was lower than expected in May, with core inflation falling in both economies. This will reassure Sweden’s Riksbank that it can keep its policy rate on hold, but we... 10th June 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Labour market recovery won’t spark wage spiral We estimate that the spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market has increased by around four million people, or 2.5% of the labour force, since the start of the pandemic. This is likely to... 9th June 2021 · 20 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Springing back to life…again The economic outlook has brightened as the virus has subsided and governments have permitted people to return to the shops and restaurants as well as to travel a bit more freely. However... 4th June 2021 · 12 mins read
