Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q1) The euro-zone economy grew slightly faster in Q1 than previously estimated and there was a solid increase in employment at the start of the year too. While we expect the labour market to remain a... 17th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB more hawkish as investors rein in rate hike bets The ECB’s hawkish conversion appears to be all but complete, with more officials this week joining the ranks of those calling for rates to rise in July and expressing a clear desire to get the deposit... 13th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage pressures intensify amid high inflation The current bout of high inflation is influencing wage negotiations in the euro-zone and stronger pay growth this year seems all but guaranteed, reinforcing the ECB’s resolve to normalise policy. But... 11th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Gas price cap won’t solve Spain’s inflation problem The cap on the wholesale natural gas price for the Iberian market will result in a bigger fall in energy inflation in Spain than we had previously expected. It might also dampen underlying price... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Macron 2.0: pension reform and cost of living in focus The re-election of French President Emmanuel Macron gives him five more years to improve France’s economic potential and its public finances, with pension reform and the green transition central to... 25th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook A year of stagflation The war in Ukraine has delivered a shock to Europe just as it was coming out of the pandemic. Higher energy prices will keep inflation elevated, squeeze household incomes and dent business confidence... 22nd April 2022 · 31 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The rise in the euro-zone Composite PMI in April suggests that the services sector rebound from the Covid restrictions earlier in the year is offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector. But with... 22nd April 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update President Le Pen: seismic shift or five-year blip? A win for Marine Le Pen would need to be followed by a strong showing for her party in June’s legislative elections if she is to implement most of her programme. A government of national unity or... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Tight labour market, French election in focus While there is very little spare capacity in the euro-zone’s labour market, this has not yet fed through to wage growth. The tight labour market and high inflation are likely to push wages up... 14th April 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Update French presidential race still looks very close A solid result for incumbent Emmanuel Macron in yesterday’s first round of the French presidential election has helped to allay fears of a Le Pen presidency. But the latest polls still point to a very... 11th April 2022 · 2 mins read
France votes in landmark presidential election “Although she has ditched any explicit ‘Frexit’ plans, Le Pen would still completely transform France’s position within Europe,” Jessica Hinds, senior Europe economist at Capital Economics, said in a... 10th April 2022 · Financial Times
Europe Economics Focus Growing risk of Le Pen upset to Macron re-election bid This month’s French presidential election no longer looks like the shoo-in for incumbent Emmanuel Macron that it did only a few weeks ago. Right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen’s chances have risen... 8th April 2022 · 20 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Stagflation risks rising The risk of stagflation has risen substantially. The latest surveys suggest that the economy held up pretty well in March, but the forward-looking indicators paint a much gloomier picture of the... 7th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Update Le Pen’s chances of victory are increasing The chances of right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen winning the French presidency later this month appear to have risen sharply over the past couple of weeks. A victory for Le Pen would almost... 5th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Feb.) The euro-zone unemployment rate edged down yet again in February, to a record low of 6.8%. There is little sign yet that this is feeding through to higher wages. But labour market conditions are set... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
