Europe Economics Weekly ECB rate hikes a distant prospect, Merkel era at an end Even as other central banks hinted this week at a shift towards tighter monetary policy, we doubt that the ECB will follow suit. Meanwhile, the business surveys suggested that while supply-chain... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Five questions and answers about Germany’s election The federal election in Germany on Sunday will result in a new chancellor for the first time since 2005 and opinion polls suggest that the result will be extremely close with potentially months of... 23rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Sep.) September’s PMIs suggest that the pace of recovery slowed further at the end of Q3, in part as the euro-zone economy approaches its pre-virus size but also as supply shortages continue to bite. Price... 23rd September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Rising gas prices will hit Spain hardest The upward pressure on euro-zone headline inflation from the surge in natural gas prices will not be felt evenly throughout the region, with Spain looking most vulnerable. Governments are stepping in... 20th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Hourly Labour Costs (Q2) & Ind. Prod. (Jul.) The sharp fall in euro-zone average hourly labour costs in Q2 compared to a year earlier was mainly due to pandemic-related distortions to the data that will continue to muddy the picture for another... 15th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Inflation impact of high gas prices will last into 2022 The recent surge in the prices of natural gas and coal, and therefore electricity too, has boosted energy inflation and suggests the risks to our near-term forecast for headline inflation lie to the... 13th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone driver shortages less acute than in the UK The shortage of heavy goods vehicle (HGV) drivers in the euro-zone appears to be nowhere near as acute as in the UK. We therefore don’t expect to see a surge in drivers’ wages that would lead to... 7th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Europe Data Response EZ Unemployment (Jul.) & Final Mfg PMIs (Aug.) The fall in euro-zone unemployment in July appears to be down to a decline in the overall labour force rather than an increase in employment, highlighting that the labour market recovery still has a... 1st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Getting a handle on euro-zone wage data Euro-zone wage data are published only quarterly, and with a long lag, and have been distorted by pandemic-related effects. So it will be another six months before we get a clearer idea of the... 31st August 2021 · 14 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Business surveys point to continued recovery The business surveys for August published this week provided some reassurance that the euro-zone economy is continuing to grow at a decent pace. And the decline in the forward-looking components is... 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The strong growth in the euro-zone GDP in Q2 is likely to be repeated in Q3 despite the spread of the Delta variant, and should bring the economy back towards its pre-virus size in the coming months... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weak wage growth trumps strong price pressures The latest data show pipeline price pressures continuing to mount in the euro-zone, pointing on the face of it to much higher consumer price inflation. But while there is arguably scope for a small... 9th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Industry holds back otherwise strong recovery This week provided yet more good news on the euro-zone, with case numbers falling consistently in some countries, vaccine rollouts on track, and both the survey and official data suggesting that the... 6th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Strong recovery to continue in Q3 The surge in spending as coronavirus restrictions have been lifted will bring the euro-zone economy close to its pre-pandemic level in the coming months. After expanding by 2% q/q in Q2, we expect a... 4th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Europe Economics Delta variant won’t trigger fresh lockdowns The pick-up in the euro-zone’s vaccine rollout means governments are unlikely to reintroduce significant new restrictions even as cases rise. So while the Delta variant might take some of the gloss... 21st July 2021 · 4 mins read
