The raft of preliminary GDP data published over the past month showed that the slump in regional growth bottomed out in the third quarter of this year. We estimate that, in aggregate, GDP in Emerging Europe contracted by 0.5% y/y, a better outturn than Q2’s fall of 1.0% y/y. Clearly, this was due largely to easing recessions in Russia and Ukraine. But growth in Central and South Eastern Europe was generally stronger-than-expected. And it looks like Turkey’s economy expanded at a decent pace. Encouragingly, too, activity and survey data from the start of Q4 suggest that regional growth may have strengthened further at the end of the year.
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