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What next for the recovery? Politics takes centre stage

Despite a surge in virus cases at the start of the year, most countries recorded decent growth in the first quarter. We expect recoveries to continue over the coming months on the back of an easing of virus restrictions and a reopening of international borders. However, new headwinds are starting to emerge. There are already signs that higher oil prices are weighing on consumer sentiment, while there are also indications that exports are losing momentum.
Emerging Asia Drop-In (26th May): Can Emerging Asia remain the global low inflation exception? Economists from our Emerging Asia team will discuss the region’s growth, inflation and policy outlooks in this special 20-minute online briefing. Register now.
Gareth Leather Senior Asia Economist
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Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Worries over weak won, Pakistan nearing IMF deal

The weakness of the Korean won, which has fallen by over 8% against the US dollar since the start of 2022, is likely to be welcomed by the country’s exporters, who face the prospect of a sharp slowdown in global demand over the coming year. However, a weaker currency is still a concern given the country’s inflation problem, and is another reason why we think the Bank of Korea will tighten monetary policy further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Pakistan looks to be on the cusp of agreeing the terms of a new deal with the IMF. This comes after the government took the key step of raising petrol prices and abolishing fuel subsidies. With foreign exchange reserves running low, a deal is essential to put the economy on a firmer footing. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

1 July 2022

Emerging Asia Data Response

Manufacturing PMIs, Korea Trade, Indonesia CPI

Manufacturing PMIs for June fell back mainly due to the weakness of external demand. We think weaker global growth will remain a drag on exports over the coming months and that the region’s industrial sectors face a tough year ahead. EM Drop-In (Thurs, 7th July): Join our economists for their regular monthly briefing on the hot stories in EMs – and those that aren’t getting the attention they deserve. In this 20-minute session, topics will include the outlook for EM FX markets after the recent sell-offs. Register now.

1 July 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Update

Vietnam: on the mend

Economic growth in Vietnam accelerated in the second quarter of the year, thanks mainly to a reopening boost and continued strong export demand. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, but with inflationary pressures relatively low, we are sticking with our view that the central bank will not raise interest rates this year. Asia Drop-In (30th June, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Are Asia’s central banks behind the curve? Can the Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China continue to go against the grain? Find out in our special session on what global monetary tightening looks like in Asia. Register now.  

29 June 2022

More from Gareth Leather

Emerging Asia Data Response

Indonesia GDP (Q1)

Growth slowed in Q1 as Omicron held back the recovery at the start of the quarter. Activity is rebounding now that the economy has reopened, but other headwinds are growing. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

9 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

BSP to tighten gradually, Philippines election

Despite the sharp jump in inflation in the Philippines last month, the central bank looks set to raise interest rates only gradually. Meanwhile, the key event of the coming week is the presidential election in the Philippines. Ferdinand Marcos Jr., son of the former dictator, has a large lead in the polls and is the strong favourite. We plan to publish an Update when the results are announced. China Drop-In (12th May, 09:00 BST/16:00 SGT): Join our China and Markets economists for a 20-minute discussion about near to long-term economic challenges, from zero-COVID disruptions to US-China decoupling. Register now.

6 May 2022

Emerging Asia Economics Weekly

Indonesia palm oil ban

Indonesia has caused turmoil in global commodity markets over the past week with its decision to ban exports of palm oil. However, given the importance of the sector to Indonesia’s economy and the country’s limited storage capacity, we suspect the ban will prove short lived and the impact on growth will be small. EM Drop-In (5th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join Shilan Shah for our latest monthly session on the big macro and markets stories in EMs. This month, Shilan and the team will be talking Russian gas, FX weakness and surging food prices. Register now

29 April 2022
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