My subscription
...
Filters
My Subscription All Publications

Auto sector woes to weigh on natural rubber prices

After a post-pandemic rebound in 2021, we expect growth in global demand for natural rubber (NR) to slow this year in tandem with a downturn in industrial activity, notably in the NR-intensive auto sector. That said, the market will remain in a deficit and higher energy prices will act as a floor under prices.
Caroline Bain Chief Commodities Economist
Continue reading

More from Commodities

Commodities Update

Gloomy outlook for use of agriculturals in industry

Deteriorating global economic growth over the coming quarters will weigh on industrial demand for cotton, natural rubber and lumber. That said, high oil prices will offer some support to cotton and natural rubber prices, and our expectation for rate cuts in the US in late 2023 could boost the price of US lumber.

10 August 2022

Commodities Update

China’s copper imports are the only bright spot

Commodity import volumes remained lacklustre in July, consistent with subdued activity in heavy industry and construction. We think import growth should tick up in the coming months in response to higher infrastructure spending and a modest pick-up in activity. But renewed lockdowns pose a downside risk. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

8 August 2022

Commodities Weekly Wrap

Oil prices fall, but supply risks remain

In a week of relative financial market calm, there was a pause in the large, sentiment-driven swings that have characterised most commodity prices in recent weeks. Instead, prices seemed to take direction from more fundamental drivers. That said, the largest moves were to the downside. Fears about softer demand have weighed particularly heavily on oil prices. But, we would not place too much emphasis on one week of price moves. Volatility in commodity prices has been incredibly high in recent months, and given the scale of supply risks that remain, we suspect there is scope for oil prices to recover some ground. Next week, we’re expecting trade data from China to show that weakness in the construction sector kept imports depressed in July, which will probably weigh on industrial metals prices. However, we expect metals prices to receive some support from a pick-up in Chinese economic activity in the coming quarters. Indeed, despite the deteriorating market backdrop, we suspect that the sharpest falls in industrial metals and agricultural commodities are now behind us.

5 August 2022

More from Caroline Bain

Energy Data Response

US Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Commercial crude stocks will be boosted in the coming weeks by the ongoing release of strategic reserves, regardless of what is happening with domestic oil demand. That said, there are now clear signs that sky-high prices are deterring demand for petroleum products, which should continue for some time yet.

11 May 2022

Energy Update

Gas supply to Europe to remain uncertain

News of force majeure on one of the pipelines in Ukraine bringing Russian natural gas to Europe just adds to our conviction that Europe is going to struggle to meet its gas needs over the next year. The heightened competition for gas imports suggests that prices will remain high at least until spring 2023. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Energy Update to clients of our Emerging Europe Service. Markets Drop-In (11th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our Q2 Outlook reports and what they say about the potential performance of bonds, equities and FX rates as inflation peaks in a special 20-minute briefing on Wednesday. Register now.

11 May 2022

Commodities Update

Some bright spots in China’s commodities trade data

Energy commodity imports held up relatively well in April given the widespread COVID-19 restrictions. But the trade data throw up some question marks about demand for industrial metals given the downturn in export volumes and somewhat lower metals imports.

9 May 2022
↑ Back to top