Australian coal exports to hold up, despite tensions

One of the latest casualties of heightened China-Australia geopolitical tensions is Australian coal exports. But we think that this will have limited implications for demand and prices as, for the most part, coal should be re-directed to other countries.
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Commodities Update

Omicron puts demand back in the spotlight

We were already downbeat on the outlook for most commodity prices in 2022, not least because we thought that prices had lost touch with demand fundamentals. The risk of Omicron-related effects on demand just adds weight to our view. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Commodities Overview Update to clients of all our Commodities services.  

29 November 2021

Commodities Weekly Wrap

New COVID-19 variant could spark energy price falls

Most commodity prices fell on Friday after South African scientists declared they had identified a new COVID-19 variant on Thursday which may be more transmissible. We think it’s still early days to say what this means for the global economy, but it has raised concerns about weaker demand for some commodities, especially oil if travel restrictions are re-imposed. These developments will make the OPEC+ meeting next week even more intriguing. We now think that there is a much higher risk that OPEC+ decides to slow or halt the gradual return of supply given mounting concerns over demand and the release of reserves. Elsewhere, China will publish its manufacturing PMI data (Tuesday/Wednesday), which we expect to show a slight uptick in manufacturing activity. In addition, we should learn more about the new COVID-19 variant and how governments will respond.

26 November 2021

Commodities Update

The slump in the Baltic Dry Index is all about iron ore

Some commentators have pointed to the slump in the Baltic Dry Index as a sign that shipping bottlenecks are easing. But we think it is more a symptom of lower Chinese steel output and plunging iron ore prices.

25 November 2021

More from James O'Rourke

Metals Data Response

Global Steel Production (Feb.)

Growth in global steel production declined in February y/y. And though base effects will distort growth rates for a while yet, we reckon that China’s steel output growth will start to slow before long.

23 March 2021

Metals Data Response

Global Aluminium Production (Feb.)

Average daily global aluminium production inched up in February. And with ShFE and LME prices at multi-year highs, we expect production to continue growing in 2021.

22 March 2021

Industrial Metals Update

Tsingshan news to cap nickel price

News on a potential breakthrough in the supply of nickel matte from Tsingshan has dampened nickel prices. Rather than a step-change in nickel market supply, we reckon that this development will simply act as a structural drag on the nickel price.

17 March 2021
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