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China Official PMIs (May)

The official PMIs add to broader evidence that activity has started to rebound as containment measures were rolled back. That said, the recovery is likely to remain tepid amid weak external demand and labour market strains.
Sheana Yue China Economist
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China Data Response

China Activity & Spending (Jul.)

The July data suggest that the post-lockdown recovery lost steam as the one-off boost from reopening fizzled out and mortgage boycotts triggered a renewed deterioration in the property sector. We think the outlook will remain challenging in the coming months as exports turn from tailwind to headwind, the property downturn deepens, and virus disruptions remain a recurring drag. Asia Drop-In (25th Aug.): What’s the economic impact of a weak yen? What does the latest China-Taiwan flare-up mean for decoupling? How ugly are conditions in China’s real estate sector? Join economists from across our Asia services for this regular briefing on the region’s big investment stories. Register now.

15 August 2022

China Economics Update

Surprise rate cut amid economic woes

The People’s Bank (PBOC) has cut its policy rates in response to a loss of economic momentum. A cut to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) later this month is now a given and we expect additional easing measures further ahead, though it’s far from clear that this will be sufficient to drive a revival in credit growth.

15 August 2022

China Economics Weekly

PBOC turns less dovish on inflation

The PBOC’s latest monetary policy report struck a less dovish tone, warning that inflationary pressure may increase in the near-term. We think these concerns are overdone and that inflation is more likely to drop back over the rest of the year. But for now at least, the PBOC appears to see inflation risks as yet another reason to maintain its restrained approach to stimulus.

12 August 2022

More from Sheana Yue

China Data Response

Hong Kong GDP (Q1 Preliminary)

Hong Kong’s GDP contracted in the first quarter of the year, and although there are signs that activity is rebounding, we expect the recovery to prove weak. While virus containment measures are being eased, rising interest rates, softer global trade and an absence of mainland visitors will hold back the city’s economic recovery in the coming months. EM Drop-In (5th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): Join Shilan Shah for our latest monthly session on the big macro and markets stories in EMs. This month, Shilan and the team will be talking Russian gas, FX weakness and surging food prices. Register now

3 May 2022

China Data Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.)

Broad credit growth was much stronger than expected last month amid increased policy support. With more easing on the horizon, we expect a further acceleration although a sharp pick-up in lending still seems unlikely.

11 April 2022

China Data Response

China Consumer & Producer Prices (Mar.)

Factory gate inflation picked up last month, though this was masked in the headline figures by base effects. Consumer prices continued to rise as well. Although the price of some goods will stay high in the near-term, we think inflation will remain relatively contained, giving the PBOC room to ease policy further.

11 April 2022
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