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Signs of Nigeria’s recovery decelerating further

The latest data from Nigeria suggest that the economic rebound slowed further at the start of Q2, and we think that the recovery will remain lacklustre over the coming quarters. The weakness of the economy may give monetary policymakers second thoughts about maintaining an aggressive pace of tightening. World with Higher Rates - Drop-In (21st June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Does monetary policy tightening automatically mean recession? Are EMs vulnerable? How will financial market returns be affected? Join our special 20-minute briefing to find out what higher rates mean for macro and markets. Register now  
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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More from Africa

Africa Economics Update

Ethiopia: Unlikely to replicate exceptional growth again

Ethiopia has been grappling with the fallout from its internal conflict and severe drought which, coming alongside spillovers from the war in Ukraine, will result in much weaker growth in the coming years and a sovereign debt restructuring is likely. Over the medium-term, we're doubtful that the government will be able to push through its ambitious reform agenda. Ethiopia’s growth miracle, in which the economy grew at rates of 8-12%, has come to an end.

10 August 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

Zambia’s creditors pledge debt relief, Kenya’s elections

News that Zambia’s official creditors agreed to provide debt relief is certainly encouraging and will unlock IMF funding. But the terms of the deal remain unknown, leaving in doubt that the country’s public debt will return to a sustainable path. Meanwhile, investors are on tenterhooks just as much as Kenyan voters ahead of Tuesday’s elections that are shaping up to be a close race. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

Africa Economics Update

Kenya: elections no cure for economic woes

Kenya’s general election scheduled for Tuesday is set against a challenging economic backdrop, and no matter the winner, the country’s outlook is likely to remain overshadowed by large macroeconomic imbalances and high public debt risks. Oil and the Gulf Drop-In (9th Aug): What’s the outlook for oil prices and what does that mean for Gulf economic outperformance? Join economists from our Commodities and Emerging Markets teams for this 20-minute briefing. Register now.

5 August 2022

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Data Response

SA Activity Data (Apr.) & Nigeria Inflation (May)

South Africa’s activity data for April showed that flooding in a key province and renewed power cuts dealt a big blow to industrial sectors, while retail sales held up well. GDP probably still contracted at the start of Q2 and we don’t expect a very strong rebound over the remainder of the year. Elsewhere, the latest jump in Nigerian inflation will keep pressure on the central bank to tighten monetary policy further.

15 June 2022

Africa Economics Weekly

Uninspiring politics in Nigeria, SA’s external position

Nigeria’s two main political parties have selected presidential contenders, setting the scene for a long campaign season ahead of elections in early 2023. Lots can happen until then, but with more market-friendly candidates out of the race, upside risks for the economic outlook are now slimmer. Elsewhere, we think that South Africa’s current account surplus in Q1 marked a turning point with the external position likely to deteriorate over the remainder of the year and the rand set to come under pressure.

10 June 2022

Africa Data Response

South Africa GDP (Q1)

South Africa posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth of 1.9% q/q in Q1 and, while the economy is unlikely to sustain such a robust performance over the coming quarters, we have revised up our GDP growth forecast for this year to 2.5% (from 2.0%).

7 June 2022
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