Nigeria GDP (Q2)

The pick-up in Nigeria’s headline GDP growth to 5.0% y/y in Q2 was largely reflective of favourable base effects created by the sharp downturn a year ago. It appears that the underlying pace of growth actually slowed in Q2 and we think that the recovery will continue to disappoint over the next few years.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Sep.)

Although South Africa’s headline inflation rate picked up to 5.0% y/y in September, soft underlying price pressures and a fragile economic recovery mean that policymakers will only normalise monetary policy gradually. By contrast, investors currently appear to expect a relatively aggressive tightening cycle.

20 October 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

FX orthodoxy in Nigeria? Strikes in SA, Ethiopia’s conflict

Comments by Nigeria’s vice president endorsing a more market-based exchange rate regime reflect growing concern about the distortionary effects of the current FX system, but there is no evidence that key officials backing the existing currency arrangements are also shifting tack. In South Africa, ongoing industrial action in the steel industry will probably dampen manufacturing output in Q4, in another hit to the recovery in the sector and the wider economy. Finally, escalating tensions in Ethiopia raise the spectre of more severe strains in the balance of payments.

15 October 2021

Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (Sep.)

The drop in the headline inflation rate in Nigeria, to 16.6% y/y in September, will ease pressure on the central bank to raise rates and allow policymakers to focus on supporting the economic recovery.

15 October 2021

More from Virag Forizs

Africa Economics Update

South Africa: bigger GDP doesn’t ease economic woes

Revisions to South Africa’s historic GDP data show that the economy is more than 10% larger than previously estimated. But this doesn’t alter the headwinds facing the economic recovery and, while the government debt-to-GDP ratio may now be lower, underlying debt dynamics are still a major concern.

Drop-In: The global trade outlook and how it might affect Asian exporters Join Simon MacAdam and Alex Holmes for a discussion about August export data so far, how we see consumer spending patterns evolving and the latest on supply chain constraints. Register here for the 0900 ET/1400 BST session on Thursday, 26th August.

25 August 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

BIG a non-starter, rand on the rocks, Hichilema hired

The South African authorities appear to be devoting increased attention to the idea of a permanent basic income grant (“BIG”) but, in practice, such proposals are probably dead on arrival. Meanwhile, the sell-off in the South African rand has gathered pace this week and we think that the currency has further to fall. Finally, the election of Hakainde Hichilema as Zambia’s next president has been embraced by investors. While it looks like he will adopt more prudent policies than his predecessor, we think these will only pay off in the long-run.

20 August 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul.)

South Africa’s headline inflation rate eased in July, to 4.6% y/y, as fears that recent violent unrest would fuel inflation pressures proved to be overdone. Underlying price pressures remain soft and, against that backdrop, we think that interest rates will remain on hold for longer than investors currently anticipate.

18 August 2021
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