India Economics Update Farmer loan waivers a cause for concern The recent approval of a bailout package for indebted farmers in Uttar Pradesh fulfils an election pledge from the BJP, but should also raise concern. The unconditional debt write-off could set a... 19th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Bank lending is rising at the fastest pace since 2009, led by non-manufacturing firms. A combination of record-low bank lending rates and extremely loose bank lending attitudes has fuelled the credit... 17th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Money and credit expanding at a healthy pace Global monetary conditions remain supportive for the world economy. In the four major advanced economies, bank lending to both households and non-financial companies is expanding steadily, and... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Survey (Mar.) & Credit Conditions Survey (Q1) While mortgage availability held up in Q1, data from the Bank of England and the RICS paint a subdued picture for demand. That suggests that a resurgence in house price or activity growth is unlikely... 13th April 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are the credit data signalling a slowdown? Aggregate measures of credit growth in advanced economies have slowed sharply in the past month or two. But this is almost entirely due to weakness in the US, which we do not expect to last. What’s... 6th April 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How will macro-prudential tools influence monetary policy? Central banks in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway have all voiced concerns about overheating in their housing markets. In Switzerland, macro-prudential policies have already served to cool house price... 5th April 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q1) While today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions for large manufacturers did not improve as much as most had anticipated, the survey suggests that growth will remain strong for now. What’s... 3rd April 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Repo rise signals growing concern over credit risks China’s interbank repo rates have fallen back slightly after the headline-grabbing spike last week that took them to their highest in more than two years. But the bigger picture is that the PBOC has... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are consumers’ finances healthy as Brexit begins? Last week’s historic triggering of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty marks the beginning of a lengthy and complex process of leaving the EU. The extent to which this event has a near-term impact on the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by the slump in bank lending? The sudden post-election weakness in bank lending is a concern. The three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate has fallen from 8% in mid-2016 to less than 2% this February. However, the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending relying on less saving While the latest Quarterly National Accounts raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. Household spending... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter mortgage lending rules raise chances of more rate cuts Today’s announcement that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has introduced tighter mortgage lending rules will go some way to addressing the RBA’s concerns about the overheating housing... 31st March 2017 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery? There are some positive signs for Portugal’s banks, suggesting that they have become less of a risk to the public finances. But a meaningful recovery in lending over the next few years seems unlikely... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property contracted for the second consecutive month in February. This is likely to reflect liquidity issues in the investment market rather than a shortfall in demand. What’s more... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s money and credit figures suggest that households’ appetite for debt has taken a bit of a hit, after holding up well following the EU referendum. But we don’t think that borrowing growth... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
