UK Economics Chart Pack Decent start to festive period With real incomes under pressure from subdued nominal pay growth and rising inflation, the strong rise in retail sales volumes in November is encouraging. However, spending on the high street might... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Out of the woods? Five key questions about Greece The Greek crisis has abated and the Government may be able to exit its bailout next August as planned. But the exit will not be “clean” and the official creditors who still own the vast bulk of the... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) New lending jumped last month but this masks a further slowdown in underlying credit growth. Despite the official rhetoric on the need to deleverage, we think the drag on economic activity from this... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus Are India’s banks in the clear? The recapitalisation package recently announced by the government is the most significant measure yet to tidy up India’s beleaguered banking system and should all but enable India’s banks to meet... 11th December 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European Monetary Fund is no silver bullet The European Commission’s (EC) latest proposals for euro-zone reform and integration centred on the transformation of the European Stability Mechanism into a European Monetary Fund (EMF). The EC plans... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Credit growing at a healthy pace Monetary and credit conditions remain supportive and should continue to be so, even though the stock of assets purchased under global QE programmes should peak in the coming years. 4th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Are low policy rates contractionary? Governor Kuroda has recently discussed the idea that extremely low interest rates could undermine bank profits and capital and, ultimately, lending. Evidence for this idea is lacking in Japan, where... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus An anatomy of Turkey’s credit boom In this Focus, we highlight the scale of Turkey’s credit boom and warn that the build-up of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is more of a concern than most acknowledge. 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update More needed to develop corporate bond market The development of a corporate bond market in India could reduce local firms’ heavy reliance on bank loans to obtain funding and improve the pricing of risk, which would have knock-on benefits for the... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) October’s household borrowing figures showed that slowing housing demand has continued to weigh on mortgage approvals. But there were few signs that consumers’ appetite for unsecured loans is fading. 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Lowe signalling that rates unlikely to rise next year Recent comments by Governor Lowe about the outlook for monetary policy all but confirmed that the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates at 1.5% at its final policy meeting of the year on... 29th November 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking three myths about EM credit The risks around EM credit expansion are, in our view, commonly misunderstood. In particular, threemyths appear to have developed in commentary around the subject. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC gives clean bill of health to banking system The Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) gave a fairly upbeat assessment of the banking system in November’s Financial Stability Report that suggests that the financial sector would... 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low EM credit spreads may last a while longer Even though emerging market (EM) credit spreads are generally very low by past standards, we do not think that a surge is around the corner. 28th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian banks are on the mend, but recovery will be slow Italy’s banks are on the mend, but it will be a very long time before they get a clean bill of health. As long as they remain weak, the economic recovery will be vulnerable to a loss of confidence in... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank recapitalisation pushes equities to fresh highs The surge in Indian equities since the start of the year has continued over the past month, with the benchmark Sensex stock index hitting an all-time high in early November. The latest leg up has been... 22nd November 2017 · 1 min read
