RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Markets slowly getting the “no rate hike” message The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will probably strike a dovish tone after leaving interest rates on hold at 1.75% at the policy meeting on Thursday 10th August, partly due to the softer economic news... 3rd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jun.) June’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that the consumer slowdown shouldn’t be too severe. But the figures will clearly add to concerns about household debt. 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Should we no longer trust the business surveys? Once again the business surveys provided an over-optimistic reading of the economy’s health in the second quarter. This raises questions about their usefulness as a leading indicator, and suggests... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: monetary easing cycle to resume in coming months The Russian central bank’s decision to pause its easing cycle was motivated by last month’s higher-than-expected inflation outturn. But we expect inflation to fall back to the central bank’s target... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) June’s euro-zone money and credit data point to downside risks to growth. But firms and consumers have scope to fund extra spending without borrowing, and with confidence high, we remain optimistic... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will US corporate credit spreads stay low? US corporate credit spreads surged three years or so ago after falling to the levels that they have approached again recently. Nonetheless, we doubt that history is about to repeat itself. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM consumers bouncing back EM retail sales growth picked up for a third consecutive month in May and is now running at a 12-month high. What’s more, the improvement has been widespread across different EM regions. In Russia and... 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Net capital outflows from China were broadly unchanged in June as greater inflows from foreign investors helped to offset increased outflows due to Chinese investment overseas, including in Belt &... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Worst fears over Qatar crisis fade Diplomatic efforts have failed to bring an end to the stand-off between Qatar and the so-called Anti-Terror Quartet (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain). Encouragingly, though, there are signs that... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Policy controls drive property demand to small cities The resilience of home sales in China (up 18% y/y in June) has raised questions about the effectiveness of government efforts to cool the sector, which have been stepped up in recent months. In fact... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q2) In contrast to the latest business surveys, the ECB’s Q2 Bank Lending Survey provided some evidence that the economic recovery might slow. However, with demand for credit still increasing, and banks... 18th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Leadership signals sustained focus on financial risks Relatively few substantive decisions appear to have been made at the National Financial Work Conference but statements about the need to limit financial risks are significant. They suggest that the... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun.) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets remained subdued in the first half of 2017. We expect that outflows will stay low over the coming quarters. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What explains the continued slide in Saudi Arabia’s FX reserves? Saudi Arabia’s official foreign exchange reserves have continued to decline sharply, despite the marked improvement in the current account position over the past year or so. This has raised concerns... 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
