US Economics Weekly Should we be worried by the slump in bank lending? The sudden post-election weakness in bank lending is a concern. The three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate has fallen from 8% in mid-2016 to less than 2% this February. However, the... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending relying on less saving While the latest Quarterly National Accounts raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. Household spending... 31st March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Tighter mortgage lending rules raise chances of more rate cuts Today’s announcement that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority has introduced tighter mortgage lending rules will go some way to addressing the RBA’s concerns about the overheating housing... 31st March 2017 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the banks help or hinder Portugal’s recovery? There are some positive signs for Portugal’s banks, suggesting that they have become less of a risk to the public finances. But a meaningful recovery in lending over the next few years seems unlikely... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) Net lending to property contracted for the second consecutive month in February. This is likely to reflect liquidity issues in the investment market rather than a shortfall in demand. What’s more... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Feb.) February’s money and credit figures suggest that households’ appetite for debt has taken a bit of a hit, after holding up well following the EU referendum. But we don’t think that borrowing growth... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) February’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they still suggest that core inflation will remain very weak. 27th March 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Banks and their net interest margins Although Australian banks will probably soon be hit by more stringent mortgage lending rules, they can take some comfort from an interest rate environment that will probably be fairly favourable over... 24th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Demonetisation impact wearing off The latest economic data for India suggest that the most acute impact from the government’s demonetisation measures has now passed. Both the manufacturing and services PMI readings for February came... 23rd March 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack South Korea elections: key names to watch Political campaigning in South Korea ahead of presidential elections due on 9th May is now well underway. Given the extent of public anger against ousted former president Park Geun-hye and her ruling... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) Aggregate private sector debt rose the most on record in Q4 on the back of plunging funding costs. While household and corporate debt are rising again relative to output, the level of indebtedness... 20th March 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Dollar debt risks building in Argentina Argentina’s dollar debt burden as a share of GDP is now one of the largest in the EM world. What’s more, it is concentrated largely in the public sector. This leaves the government vulnerable to... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update The People’s Bank follows the Fed The People’s Bank has followed the Fed in raising the interest rate it charges when providing funds in China’s interbank market. But we believe that tighter policy in China continues to be primarily... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update “Bad bank” alone would have limited impact The creation of a “bad bank” in India would help restructure the loans of India’s most heavily-indebted firms and should facilitate a clean-up of the balance sheets of commercial banks. But the... 15th March 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What’s behind the Saudi credit slowdown? The sharp slowdown in credit growth in Saudi Arabia is likely to reach a trough soon. However, as we explain in this Watch, a weak economic outlook and higher interest rates mean that lending growth... 13th March 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Feb.) Bank lending in China held up better than expected last month but at the expense of other forms of credit, which have become less attractive following the recent rise in market interest rates. 9th March 2017 · 1 min read
