UK Economics Weekly Fall in sterling supporting tourism sector While the fall in the pound has yet to provide a significant boost to overall net trade, it has already started to support the tourism sector. And we think that net tourism spending will provide a... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Private sector debt is growing at the fastest pace on record as corporate debt issuance has surged. As a result, both household and corporate debt are now rising again relative to output. 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) Credit conditions in the residential mortgage market eased a touch in Q2. But with lenders’ risk appetites set to contract, Q3 may be a little tighter. Meanwhile, there is little evidence to suggest... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Jun.) New lending rose by more than anticipated in June. But this masks a continued slowdown in underlying credit growth which will start to weigh on economic activity before long. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM credit bubble is now (mostly) a China story The past couple of weeks have seen renewed concerns about credit risks in emerging economies. The key point that has been missed in much of the analysis, however, is that credit bubbles have begun to... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly External pressures mounting in Pakistan The “devaluation” of the Pakistani rupee earlier in the week is a reminder of the country’s precarious balance of payments position. Pakistan will soon be forced to either let the currency fall much... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Should we worry about low EM credit spreads? Following a long-lasting decline, emerging market (EM) credit spreads have rarely been much lower than they are now since the financial crisis. This does not mean that they are bound to pick up any... 4th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer spending reliant on saving less While the latest Quarterly National Accounts has raised further questions about the sustainability of consumer spending growth, we don’t think that a dramatic slowdown is in prospect. 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Should we still worry about the banks? Recent developments have underlined that the banking sector is far better capitalised in the US than in the euro-zone. But the more important point is that the financial sector has strengthened in... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) May’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth may have picked up pace in Q2, after a disappointing performance in Q1. But the figures will clearly add... 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) May’s euro-zone money and credit data point to continued steady economic growth. But problems in Italian banks have seen lending there continue to contract. 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update State profligacy is undermining centre’s gains Discussions on the health of India’s public finances often focus exclusively on the national level, where relatively good progress has been made reining in the budget deficit in recent years. Less... 28th June 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Consumer credit in the FPC’s sights The publication today of the Financial Stability Report revealed that while the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee is fairly sanguine about the resilience of the financial system as a whole... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian bank rescue raises long-term concerns While the state aid granted to two regional Italian lenders over the weekend has reduced the risks to the Italian economy in the near term, it shows that the so-called “doom loop” between the banking... 27th June 2017 · 1 min read
