China Data Response FX Reserves (Sep.) The small rise in China’s foreign exchange reserves last month is consistent with muted capital outflows but hints at active intervention by the People’s Bank to inject two-way volatility into the... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ’s JGB purchases to slow further The Bank of Japan’s purchases of JGBs have now fallen to around ¥60 trillion per annum and they are likely to be cut further to ¥40 trillion over the next couple of years. However, this shouldn’t have... 9th October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM dollar debt – a primer The decision by the Fed to begin the process of balance sheet reduction this month – coupled with the heavy hints that a December rate hike remains on the table – has led several clients to ask about... 4th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Our recreated M3 measure shows broad money growth accelerating to a 12-month high of 4.6% in August, from 4.3%, although the Fed’s quantitative tightening will put modest downward pressure on the... 3rd October 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Monetary policy remaining tight despite RRR cut The People’s Bank gave its devotees a twinge of nostalgia on Saturday as it announced a cut to reserve requirements out of office hours and at the start of a national holiday in China. This was how... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our forecasts Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth won’t slow too sharply ahead. But the figures will do little to assuage concerns about household debt... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2.) The most interesting element of the National Accounts was the sweeping revisions to the data, including the implementation of the ONS’ annual methodological overhaul, which suggests households’... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained fairly strong in August, though the data suggest that economic growth is unlikely to gather much more pace. Meanwhile, recent developments in Italy’s and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC fires a warning shot to banks In today’s Statement, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) fired a warning shot to banks over consumer credit, suggesting that banks would need to increase the amount of capital they... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update S&P playing catch-up with downgrade S&P is the third of the three major ratings agencies to downgrade China and today’s decision tells us nothing we didn’t already know. There has actually been some progress recently in tackling credit... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
