China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (May) The squeeze in bond markets explains a pick-up in corporate loan growth last month as firms sought cheaper forms of credit. But on broader measures, the recent slowdown in credit growth has been... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Asia well placed to withstand Fed interest rate hikes The US Fed looks almost certain to raise interest rates at its meeting later today. For most of Emerging Asia, higher rates in the US do not pose a major threat, even if the US Fed ends up hiking... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) Bank profits have continued to shrink as lenders’ net interest margins have declined. However, non-financial firms are benefitting from rock-bottom borrowing costs and corporate bankruptcies remain... 14th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms shun banks for other sources of finance Although the sharp slowdown in C&I bank loans over recent months has received plenty of attention, total corporate sector debt actually expanded by a record amount in the first quarter, suggesting... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Qatar: banking sector concerns slip under the radar Concerns over the impact on Qatar from its diplomatic spat with neighbouring countries have largely focussed on trade ties, but we think investors should be keeping a closer eye on Qatar’s banking... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May) Our Capital Flows Tracker shows that net capital outflows from emerging markets stabilised in May. We expect that they will remain subdued over the remainder of the year. 12th June 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly China credit bubble is biggest risk facing Emerging Asia Many of the risks facing Emerging Asia’s economies have receded in recent months. The key exception is the continued rapid build-up of debt in China. A bursting of China’s credit bubble would have... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Fears over Qatar’s dollar peg misplaced The diplomatic spat between Qatar and its neighbours has sparked fears that it may be forced to devalue the riyal, but we think this is highly unlikely. In particular, the country’s strong balance... 8th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish banks unlikely to hold back recovery Banco Popular’s difficulties jar with improving conditions elsewhere in Spain’s banking sector, so its forced sale does not appear to signal further trouble ahead and will not hold back the economic... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture Our latest Banking Heat Map paints a broadly positive picture. Banks in Romania and Hungary – which have been among the weakest in Emerging Europe over the past decade – are returning to health, and... 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Problems continue to brew at Chinese banks The outlook for China’s banks is going from bad to worse. Pressure on the banking system has increased during the past year even though economic activity has recovered. And with a renewed slowdown now... 1st June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) April’s euro-zone money and credit data point to steady economic growth. But they remain consistent with core inflation below the ECB’s near-2% target. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Apr.) April’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending may have picked up pace in Q2, after a disappointing performance in Q1. But they will probably add to... 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit bubbles – where do the risks lie? We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s current credit binge is unsustainable, and that credit growth in a number of countries will need to slow for a crisis to be avoided... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Greek debt relief set to be pushed back again Amid continued discord between the IMF and Germany, any commitment to Greek debt relief looks set to be delayed for another year. The Eurogroup has proposed new loan extensions to make the debt... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Regulatory crackdown poses risks to growth, financial stability The ongoing regulatory crackdown on banks’ off-balance-sheet activities has contributed to the mild slowdown in growth we’ve seen recently. But it is also bringing into focus the challenges that China... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
