Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) Net capital outflows from emerging markets slowed a bit in August, but the big picture is that they remained low by recent standards. Portfolio inflows weakened from the highs recorded earlier in Q3. 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Would the yen remain a safe haven during a Korean War? The experience of the last couple of weeks suggests that gold might be the better safe haven choice if war were to break out on the Korean peninsula. Nonetheless, on the evidence of past crises, the... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Banking sector woes to persist Recent comments from former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) governor Raghuram Rajan mirror our longheld view that the key to reviving the ailing domestic banking sector is for the government to infuse... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor How long will EM credit spreads remain so low? Emerging market (EM) credit spreads ticked down again over the past month and generally appear low by the standards of the past. We think that they will pick up only a little this year and next, but... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the fallout from Russia’s Otkritie bailout The breathless commentary surrounding the recent bailout of Otkritie by Russia’s central bank appears to have missed some of the more salient points about Russia’s banking sector. As we explain in... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Does rising corporate borrowing point to stronger investment? The latest business investment figures were undeniably disappointing, with quarterly growth flat-lining in Q2. But this week’s money and credit figures, which showed another strong rise in net finance... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: limited market fallout from Otkritie turmoil The uncertainty about how troubles at Otkritie might play out initially pushed up interbank interest rates in Russia, but the Central Bank (CBR) quickly snuffed out the rise using its open market... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) July’s household borrowing figures should help to assuage fears that the housing market slowdown is worsening, while cooling consumer credit growth will be welcome news for the Bank of England’s... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s Otkritie bailout highlights risk from previous credit boom The Russian central bank’s decision to bail out struggling Otkritie bank provides the clearest sign yet of the damaging legacy from the sharp run-up in credit seen up to 2014. That said, the strong... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen’s strong defence of regulation at odds with Trump Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s passionate defence of the post-crisis tightening of financial regulation in her Jackson Hole speech today isn’t going to go down particularly well at the White House. Donald... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Will other central banks follow Bank Indonesia? Despite the current subdued rates of inflation across most of Emerging Asia, we don’t expect many of the region’s central banks to copy Bank Indonesia, which yesterday surprised markets by cutting... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s strong recovery won’t last Turkey’s economy enjoyed a strong first half of the year, but growth is close to peaking and we think that it will slow in 2018-19, and by more than most expect. What’s more, given the vulnerabilities... 23rd August 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Bank lending to remain weak The Reserve Bank of India cut its policy rate by 25bp earlier this month, and subsequently called upon commercial banks to pass on the cut to borrowers. But the move is likely to have a negligible... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will accelerating car credit cause a crash? Recent rapid growth in car finance has left the industry looking more vulnerable to a downturn. But this type of lending is a small proportion of total borrowing. And with car finance deals shifting... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jul.) Total EM capital outflows remained pretty stable in July. Net portfolio inflows picked up a bit, though more recent figures suggest that this may have reversed in August. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Remittance slowdown a big risk to South Asia A fall in remittances to Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka is a big concern for these economies. If sustained, it could cause growth to weaken and put their currencies under downward pressure. 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
