Middle East & North Africa Economics Update

Saudi’s non-oil economy faces growing headwinds in 2026

The Saudi economy has been boosted by the unwinding of oil output cuts this year and this will continue over the coming quarters, but a step up in fiscal consolidation efforts means that overall GDP...

10th December 2025 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

Should we fear the 2026 “maturity wall”?

The rise in the number of business bankruptcies this year, despite little change in default rates for bank loans or speculative-grade debt, seems to reflect the larger number of firms trying to re...

9th December 2025 · 4 mins read

India Economic Outlook

Economy to cool, but outperformance to continue

After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 and 2027 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a...

9th December 2025 · 17 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Euro-zone growth will remain weak

The small upward revision to the euro-zone's third-quarter GDP growth, from +0.2% to +0.3% q/q, does not change our view that there has been no meaningful increase in momentum in the second half of...

5th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

10-year JGB yield set to reach 30-year high

In the wake of the BoJ signaling a rate hike at its December meeting, the 10-year JGB yield has approached 2% and we think it will climb to a 30-year high of 2.5% over the next couple of years. We...

5th December 2025 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

ECB interest rates cuts doing little to boost growth

Aside from the monetary loosening undertaken by the ECB at the beginning of the global financial crisis, its interest rate cuts from mid-2024 to mid-2025 were the deepest over a 12-month period in its...

1st December 2025 · 15 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Waning support for developers may drag on construction

Vanke's plan to delay repayment of an onshore bond points to fading state support for non-SOE developers. The risk this poses to financial stability is probably manageable. But it threatens to...

28th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Dubai real estate, Bahrain-Oman public finances, Egypt rates

The surge in prices in Dubai’s real estate sector appears to be prompting developers to take on debt to finance new projects. This echoes events prior to the crisis in 2009, but a re-run seems...

27th November 2025 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Chile shifts right, current account deficits, Banco Master

The first round of Chile’s presidential election resulted in right-wing candidate José Antonio Kast becoming the clear front-runner in the second round due in December. Kast’s steps this week signal a...

21st November 2025 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

China Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Oct.)

Bank loan growth continued to weaken in October, with the consumer loan subsidy scheme failing to put a floor under household loan growth. Alongside the continued slowdown in government bond issuance...

13th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Czech strength, Russia banking risks, NBP meeting

Data released this week suggest that the Czech economic recovery is continuing to gather momentum. The risks to our GDP growth forecasts there have shifted to the upside and the central bank's easing...

31st October 2025 · 6 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Update

Poland’s credit engine still misfiring

The 30%-pts of GDP decline in Poland’s private sector debt-to-GDP ratio since its recent peak is on a scale typically associated with the aftermath of banking crises. The reasons are more benign in...

30th October 2025 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Chart Pack

Global Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

The latest data suggest that global GDP growth picked up to over 3% in Q3. World trade continues to shrug off US tariffs, global industry has been resilient, and lower interest rates have supported a...

28th October 2025 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

ECB Bank Lending Survey (Q3 2025)

The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey, published this morning, suggested that mortgage demand in the euro-zone continues to be strong. But households remain reluctant to borrow to boost their...

28th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2025)

Our Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect the Middle East and North Africa to record its fastest rate of GDP...

28th October 2025 · 1 min read