Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of our forecasts Growth in Emerging Europe has generally surprised on the upside in recent quarters, which is consistent with the above-consensus forecasts we made at the start of this year. We expect further positive... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) August’s household borrowing figures provide another reason to think that consumer spending growth won’t slow too sharply ahead. But the figures will do little to assuage concerns about household debt... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q2.) The most interesting element of the National Accounts was the sweeping revisions to the data, including the implementation of the ONS’ annual methodological overhaul, which suggests households’... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Saudi Arabia returns to the international bond market Saudi Arabia returned to the international bond market this month in order to plug its twin budget and current account shortfalls. A total of $12.5bn of dollar debt was issued, split into three... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Turning point? The encouraging signs about the health of the Australian economy have continued over the past month, with employment growth gathering pace and the outlook for business investment improving. (See Chart... 28th September 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack A Multispeed Recovery GDP figures released this month showed that the economic fortunes of Africa’s largest economies diverged in Q2. South Africa’s economy rebounded after a brief recession at the turn of the year. While... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Euro-zone money and lending growth remained fairly strong in August, though the data suggest that economic growth is unlikely to gather much more pace. Meanwhile, recent developments in Italy’s and... 27th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update FPC fires a warning shot to banks In today’s Statement, the Bank of England’s Financial Policy Committee (FPC) fired a warning shot to banks over consumer credit, suggesting that banks would need to increase the amount of capital they... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update S&P playing catch-up with downgrade S&P is the third of the three major ratings agencies to downgrade China and today’s decision tells us nothing we didn’t already know. There has actually been some progress recently in tackling credit... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Early signs of a Q3 pick-up The latest data suggest that, following a strong Q2, growth in Emerging Europe as a whole picked up further in Q3. Activity figures from Poland improved in July and August and the early signs are that... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Time to worry about rising EM sovereign debt? The fact that aggregate EM sovereign debt has now surpassed $11.7trn has grabbed a few headlines but several factors – notably the increase in EM GDP over the past decade – mean that fiscal risks are... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Property market set to cool further Some have pointed to a rise in home sales and housing starts growth in August as evidence that China’s property sector is holding up well despite the government’s curbs. But while the property sector... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Capital Flows Monitor (Aug.) In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital outflows fell to a three-year low last month as Chinese firms and individuals reduced their foreign currency deposits at the fastest pace in half a year. Looking... 18th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Aug.) New lending rose in August, but this masks a decline in underlying credit growth, which has trended down during the past year. A further slowdown appears likely given the government’s current campaign... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) Bank lending rates remain very low and corporate profits have climbed to record highs. Companies are in rude financial health as a result and the number of bankruptcies has dropped to levels not seen... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
