Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor EM credit spreads likely to rise further EM credit spreads remain very tight by historical standards, despite picking up a bit in the wake of the chaos in global equity markets in the past few days. However, their current low levels do not... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA hints it’s in no rush to raise rates The jitters in the financial markets are due to concerns that global interest rates will rise rapidly, but the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) did its part to calm fears by leaving interest rates at... 6th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Senior Loan Officer Survey (Jan.) The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a reacceleration in the growth rate of business loans, although auto loans look set to weaken further. 5th February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the recent decline in EM credit spreads justified? The stripped spread of the JP Morgan EMBI Global (which is comprised of sovereign dollar-denominated bonds) has continued to fall this year, and has rarely been lower in the post-financial crisis era... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Credit worries starting to recede in places, but risks remain Credit growth has continued to slow in some of the countries, namely Thailand and Malaysia, we had previously identified as being at risk from a rapid build-up of private sector debt. However, risks... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch ECB and BoJ in no rush to follow the Fed Contrary to suggestions that the ECB and Bank of Japan are gearing up to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected, we think they will be happy to trail a long way behind the Fed and Bank of... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Spencer to play it safe at his penultimate meeting The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will almost certainly leave the official cash rate on hold at 1.75% at its policy meeting on Thursday 8th February and, in the accompanying Monetary Policy... 1st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has so far been exceptionally gradual, which helps to explain why there’s been next to no impact on the monetary aggregates. Meanwhile, bank lending growth has... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Another year of record low rates Despite the strengthening of the activity data, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 6th February and probably won’t hint in the following... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Euro-zone lending growth remained healthy in December, and with interest rates likely to rise only very slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Japan benefit from higher interest rates? Some commentators have been arguing that the Bank of Japan should be raising interest rates now to support household incomes. However, it isn’t clear whether this would boost household spending, while... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 continued last month. Policymakers may welcome this progress toward deleveraging for now. But we think the drag on economic... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
