US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet has so far been exceptionally gradual, which helps to explain why there’s been next to no impact on the monetary aggregates. Meanwhile, bank lending growth has... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
RBA Watch Another year of record low rates Despite the strengthening of the activity data, the Reserve Bank of Australia won’t raise interest rates from 1.5% at the meeting on Tuesday 6th February and probably won’t hint in the following... 31st January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures revealed a widening divergence between borrowing to fund a house purchase and borrowing to fund other areas of spending. However, we don’t think that... 30th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the ECB’s confidence in the inflation outlook warranted? While ECB President Mario Draghi sounded positive on the outlook for inflation at this week’s press conference, he did so with a justified degree of caution. After all, there is still economic slack... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Euro-zone lending growth remained healthy in December, and with interest rates likely to rise only very slowly as the ECB normalises policy, bank lending looks set to continue supporting economic... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Would Japan benefit from higher interest rates? Some commentators have been arguing that the Bank of Japan should be raising interest rates now to support household incomes. However, it isn’t clear whether this would boost household spending, while... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Trade tensions simmer as China-US surplus widens China’s bilateral trade surplus with the US rose in 2017 to a record high of US$275bn according to Chinese data. President Trump, according to the White House, stressed his “disappointment” with this... 24th January 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) The slowdown in broad credit growth that has been underway since mid-2016 continued last month. Policymakers may welcome this progress toward deleveraging for now. But we think the drag on economic... 12th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Bank lending still going strong Monetary conditions should stay accommodative this year, even though the ECB has scaled back its asset purchases this month and the Fed will continue to gradually reduce its balance sheet. Bank... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Mortgage credit availability edged up in Q4, while the supply of credit for commercial property held steady. But while conditions for households are expected to improve further in Q1, commercial... 11th January 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Fed’s quantitative tightening has so far had little impact on the monetary aggregates, but the effects of rising short-term interest rates are becoming more visible. Meanwhile, after slowing... 10th January 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Decline in credit spreads not likely to last a lot longer 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update 2018 should be another good year for consumers We estimate that household spending growth in the world’s major economies picked up from 3.1% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017. In 2018, it is likely to grow at a similarly decent pace to last year, as real... 9th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) November’s household borrowing figures will help to assuage fears that the slowdown in the housing market is gathering pace. And with consumers’ appetite for unsecured loans remaining strong, this... 4th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Nov.) November’s public finances figures brought more good news on the current health of the public finances. And we think that stronger GDP growth will result in a more rapid improvement further ahead. 21st December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
