UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Dec.) December’s household borrowing figures showed that demand has continued to return to the housing market, following a lull around the referendum, but that consumer credit growth slowed for the first... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Decline in Saudi interbank rates to reverse course soon The recent decline in Saudi interbank rates reflects fading fears that the riyal will be devalued and easing liquidity shortages in the banking system. We still expect Saudi interbank rates to rise... 30th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: private sector deleveraging has further to run Private sector debt deleveraging in Brazil gathered pace over the second half of last year. But while credit conditions will remain extremely tight this year, there are at least signs that broader... 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) December’s euro-zone money and credit data are consistent with steady economic growth. But they still point to inflation undershooting the ECB’s target. 27th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Attention turns to state elections Upcoming state elections in India are likely to have an important bearing on economic policy at the local level. But perhaps more significant, the outcome of the state elections could be crucial in... 23rd January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Budget improvements set to stall Official data show a sharp decline in the budget deficit but it remains sizeable and we don’t expect the narrowing to continue. In any case, the key determinant of the sustainability of the public... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) Corporate debt affordability remains extraordinarily high, as corporate profit margins have rebounded and borrowing costs have continued to decline. Firms have responded with higher corporate bond... 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are corporate credit spreads set to narrow in 2017? As commodity prices recovered and fears of a hard landing in China faded, corporate bonds delivered healthy returns in the US and euro-zone last year, and credit spreads narrowed. However, as the bull... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Vietnam complacent over credit risks Policymakers in Vietnam are becoming increasingly complacent of the risks posed by the rapid build-up in debt, as reflected by the government’s recent announcement that it was targeting credit growth... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Going cashless? The government’s demonetisation measures have led to a jump in card and digital transactions, but this has not been anywhere near large enough to offset the slowdown in cash spending. That said, it... 17th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) The supply of residential mortgage credit worsened a touch in the fourth quarter. But there was no sign of a drop in lenders’ risk appetite or market share objectives, suggesting that credit... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Steady growth ahead Most countries in Emerging Asia should continue to grow at a decent pace over the next couple of years as loose monetary policy helps support demand. The key exception is China, where growth looks set... 13th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) Consumer price inflation dropped again in December as price discounting continued following demonetisation. A rate cut can’t be ruled out in the near term but, over the longer term, demonetisation... 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Dec.) Bank lending in China jumped last month as higher bond yields encouraged firms to turn to banks rather than capital markets for funding. However, broad credit continued to slow. 12th January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing Turkish balance sheet risks from the fall in the lira The plunge in the lira doesn’t, so far, appear to have resulted in significant balance sheet strains, but the rapid rise in private sector FX liabilities suggests that this is still a risk. At the... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
