Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) While firms’ capital spending plans remain much weaker than in previous years, the rebound in the headline index of today’s Tankan should encourage the Bank of Japan to refrain from further easing. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The drop in CPI inflation in November can be attributed to the government’s demonetisation measures, but today’s data don’t indicate that disruption to the economy has been as dramatic as some reports... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned chalice? Italy’s new Prime Minister has two major challenges ahead of him – reforming the electoral system and managing the banking crisis – both of which could spell disaster for his party at the next... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the referendum result mean for Italy’s banks? Following Italy’s referendum last weekend, some form of government support for the country’s weakest banks looks likely. But looking ahead, if an early general election were to take place next year... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI looks complacent while waiting for clarity on demonetisation Having previously shown that it was willing to prioritise growth even at the risk of missing targets for inflation, the RBI’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold despite the downside risks... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup debt tinkering is no real relief for Greece The Eurogroup made some progress yesterday, confirming limits on Greek loan interest rates and tweaks to maturities. But it remains strongly opposed to the debt forgiveness that Greece needs. And with... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Time to worry about a foreign currency debt crisis in Asia? The sharp rise in the US dollar since Donald Trump’s election victory has led to renewed concerns over the rapid build-up in foreign currency (FX) debt in Emerging Asia. For most countries, FX debt... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What now for Italy? Italy has taken the first step along a path that could lead it out of the euro-zone. There are still many obstacles to an Italian exit. But as long as the country’s future is uncertain, bond yields... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
RBI Watch Dealing with demonetisation The liquidity-draining measures that were eventually introduced by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to deal with the rush of cash entering the banking system after the demonetisation announcement have... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
UK Data Response UK financial system coping well with uncertainty While the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) suggested that the UK financial system has fared well during recent uncertainty, it highlighted lingering risks. Nonetheless, we think that... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi interbank rates edge lower, but will rise again soon Interbank interest rates in Saudi Arabia have edged down over the past month as investor sentiment towards the Kingdom has improved and policy moves have helped to ease liquidity constraints at banks... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Oct.) October’s household borrowing figures provided further evidence that the slowdown in mortgage lending has bottomed out and that consumers’ appetite for debt hasn’t been affected much by the Brexit... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) October’s euro-zone money and credit data remain consistent with steady economic growth. But a renewed pick-up in money and lending growth will be needed before the ECB can feel comfortable about... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Downgrade, when it comes, will tell us little new Friday’s re-evaluation of South African FX debt by Fitch & Moody’s suggests the country probably will lose its investment grade status. A downgrade wouldn’t have a significant economic or financial... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
