India Economics Update Extinguishing RBI’s liabilities unlikely to bring much benefit India’s government has moved to strip the legal status of banknotes affected by demonetisation that are still in circulation. This would have the result of extinguishing some of the RBI’s liabilities... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Nov.) November’s household borrowing figures showed that borrowing growth remains strong, despite the Brexit vote, and that the housing market continues to regain its momentum. Admittedly, the small rise in... 4th January 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Reform agenda takes off in 2016 2016 will be remembered as the year that Prime Minister Modi finally began to deliver on promises of much-needed economic reform. However, with a number of state elections due to take place over the... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update C&SEE banks in better shape, but concerns about Turkey The health of banking sectors in Central and South Eastern Europe (C&SEE) has improved significantly in recent years. And they are now much less exposed to a fresh eruption of financial stress in the... 20th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov.) The Bank of Japan’s yield target has kept JGB prices anchored over recent weeks against the backdrop of a sell-off in bond markets overseas. The volume of the Bank’s bond purchases has also remained... 19th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Will political risks halt the euro-zone recovery? Rising euroscepticism and a packed election timetable next year mean that there is a significant risk that the euro-zone breaks up. Even in our central scenario in which the currency union holds... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Nov.) The jump in new lending last month was largely seasonal. Broad credit growth did pick up slightly but the increase was small and is unlikely to elicit a major policy response. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) While firms’ capital spending plans remain much weaker than in previous years, the rebound in the headline index of today’s Tankan should encourage the Bank of Japan to refrain from further easing. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Nov.) The drop in CPI inflation in November can be attributed to the government’s demonetisation measures, but today’s data don’t indicate that disruption to the economy has been as dramatic as some reports... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Fed tightening unlikely to cause major problems for EMs Our proprietary indicator of EM financial risk remains close to a 13-year low, which should help to reassure anyone concerned about a spate of crises across the emerging world in 2017. In particular... 13th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Has Italy’s new PM been handed a poisoned chalice? Italy’s new Prime Minister has two major challenges ahead of him – reforming the electoral system and managing the banking crisis – both of which could spell disaster for his party at the next... 12th December 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus What to expect in 2017 China defied the bears this year with an economic turnaround that took many by surprise. But the current strength cannot be sustained and the risk now is that many don’t appreciate how soon growth... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What does the referendum result mean for Italy’s banks? Following Italy’s referendum last weekend, some form of government support for the country’s weakest banks looks likely. But looking ahead, if an early general election were to take place next year... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI looks complacent while waiting for clarity on demonetisation Having previously shown that it was willing to prioritise growth even at the risk of missing targets for inflation, the RBI’s decision today to keep interest rates on hold despite the downside risks... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Eurogroup debt tinkering is no real relief for Greece The Eurogroup made some progress yesterday, confirming limits on Greek loan interest rates and tweaks to maturities. But it remains strongly opposed to the debt forgiveness that Greece needs. And with... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus Time to worry about a foreign currency debt crisis in Asia? The sharp rise in the US dollar since Donald Trump’s election victory has led to renewed concerns over the rapid build-up in foreign currency (FX) debt in Emerging Asia. For most countries, FX debt... 5th December 2016 · 1 min read
