China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) The jump in new lending last month was mostly seasonal and masks a drop in broad credit growth. We expect this slowdown to continue given further signs that the focus of policy makers has shifted away... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Bank lending picked up in September and a broader measure of private sector credit expanded at the fastest pace since the launch of QQE in Q2. Meanwhile, low returns at home have encouraged Japanese... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2016) Today’s Credit Conditions Survey shows that lenders became a little more cautious in the aftermath of the referendum. And while banks look set to relax conditions for mortgage lending in Q4, the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Q3 According to today’s Tankan survey, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained the weakest they have been seen the launch of QQE, while conditions in non-manufacturing continued to worsen. The... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the recent surge in the money supply a concern? The recent surge in the money supply has caused some commentators to suggest that the MPC’s current monetary policy stance is far too loose. But we think that this rapid rise should prove to be... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update An anatomy of Brazil’s recession The depth of Brazil’s recession has been blamed on everything from lower global commodity prices and tightening domestic credit conditions to poor infrastructure and excessive red tape. But this... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Aug.) The latest data suggest that gold buying from the official sector recovered somewhat in August but overall demand in the year to date remains subdued. That said, we think that the case for gold as a... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are investors underestimating EM credit risks? Both the BIS’s latest report and our own risk indicator continue to highlight high levels of debt as a key risk in China, but we think investors are right to judge that the threat of a credit event in... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deutsche Bank’s troubles unlikely to spark wider crisis Today’s relatively positive news about Deutsche Bank adds to the evidence that it is not the next Lehman Brothers for the global financial system and that its troubles are unlikely to trigger a German... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) August’s money and credit data suggest that the euro-zone economy has continued to grow at a decent pace in Q3. Nevertheless, the data suggest that inflation will remain well below the ECB’s target. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Mortgage surge not the key driver of stronger credit Growth in long-term loans to households, which consist mostly of mortgages, has jumped since early 2015 as the property market has heated up. In contrast, growth in other loans has slowed over the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is rising real estate debt a cause for concern? Data from the Bank of Japan show that bank lending to real estate companies reached a record high last quarter and, on some measures, property prices have been rising rapidly too. However, broader... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
