India Chart Pack Core price pressures remain elevated Much of the focus both before and after the RBI’s decision to cut the repo rate by 25bp (to 6.25%) in early October has been on the sharp fall in headline inflation over the past couple of months. But... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi banks should continue to weather economic headwinds Banks in Saudi Arabia have coped well so far with the fallout from lower oil prices and we think the sector is in a strong position to confront the ongoing economic headwinds over the coming years. 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draft Budgets based on over-optimistic forecasts Last week, the European Commission (EC) published the draft Budgets for 2017 as submitted by eurozone governments. On the face of it at least, there is little for the EC to be concerned about. All... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Easy credit lifting the service sector China’s GDP data are widely maligned. But one area where the figures are useful is in the detail they provide on the service sector. Figures for Q3 show stronger activity in retail and real estate... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria’s banks look increasingly frail Concerns about the health of Nigerian banks have risen over the past month. Indeed, as we explain in this Watch, it now looks increasingly likely that parts of the financial sector will require... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q3) & Activity & Spending (Sep.) The official GDP figures remain too stable to tell us much about the performance of China’s economy. Our own measure of economic activity suggests that growth actually picked up in Q3. But with credit... 19th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will money market changes affect US government bonds? Following the implementation of new US money market regulations on Friday, US interbank rates might fall back a bit. While this could prompt some renewed demand for long-term Treasuries from foreign... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Sep.) The jump in new lending last month was mostly seasonal and masks a drop in broad credit growth. We expect this slowdown to continue given further signs that the focus of policy makers has shifted away... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What to make of the surge in EM foreign currency debt sales Sovereign foreign currency bond sales by emerging markets could top $100bn this year although, outside a couple of vulnerable countries, it seems unlikely that these will cause future debt problems. 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Bank lending picked up in September and a broader measure of private sector credit expanded at the fastest pace since the launch of QQE in Q2. Meanwhile, low returns at home have encouraged Japanese... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3 2016) Today’s Credit Conditions Survey shows that lenders became a little more cautious in the aftermath of the referendum. And while banks look set to relax conditions for mortgage lending in Q4, the... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Rise in Saudi interest rates has further to go Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why Turkey’s economy will struggle The hit to Turkey’s economy from July’s military coup attempt is likely to be short-lived, but even once the impact dissipates, the economy’s large vulnerabilities mean activity will remain sluggish... 6th October 2016 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Loose monetary and fiscal policy to support growth While Emerging Asia continues to face headwinds, loose fiscal and monetary policy in most economies should continue to support demand over the next couple of years, and we expect regional growth to... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan Q3 According to today’s Tankan survey, conditions in the manufacturing sector remained the weakest they have been seen the launch of QQE, while conditions in non-manufacturing continued to worsen. The... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is the recent surge in the money supply a concern? The recent surge in the money supply has caused some commentators to suggest that the MPC’s current monetary policy stance is far too loose. But we think that this rapid rise should prove to be... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
