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Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) …
Asia-Pacific

Emerging Asia
28th November 2023
Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again

Strong Q3 growth Most countries in Emerging Asia have now published GDP figures for the third quarter. Growth slowed in China, was unchanged in Korea, but rebounded strongly everywhere else. (See Chart 1.) To view our various responses click here . …
GDP and Activity

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Sri Lanka

Emerging Asia
24th November 2023
Indonesia Policy Rate (November 2023)

BI on hold, end of the tightening cycle Bank Indonesia today left interest rates unchanged and the comments from the press conference suggest this marks the end of the tightening cycle. With growth likely to struggle and inflation set to remain weak, …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Emerging Asia
23rd November 2023
Malaysia: Anwar failing to make progress on reform

One year into his premiership, Anwar Ibrahim has made very limited progress on his key reform objectives. Given his weak position in parliament, we don’t anticipate this will change anytime soon, and we remain downbeat on the country’s medium-term …
Politics and Institutions

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia

Emerging Asia
22nd November 2023
Singapore: strong growth unlikely to be sustained

Economic growth in Singapore rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year, but we don’t expect this strength to last. A combination of weaker global demand and high interest rates will cause growth to slow over the next couple of quarters. The …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Singapore

Emerging Asia
22nd November 2023
Thailand: steady growth ahead

Economic growth in Thailand picked up in the third quarter of the year and we expect the economy to record steady, if unspectacular growth over the coming quarters, helped by looser fiscal policy and a further recovery in the tourism sector. GDP growth …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Thailand

Emerging Asia
20th November 2023
BI on hold, Taiwan opposition parties unite

Back-to-back rate hikes unlikely Bank Indonesia surprised financial markets (and us) by hiking interest rates in October. But we don’t expect it to follow through with another hike at its scheduled meeting on Thursday. The main reason BI hiked last …
Monetary Policy

Politics and Institutions

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Taiwan

Emerging Asia
17th November 2023
Malaysia: strong growth unlikely to last

GDP figures for Malaysia published today confirmed that the economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year. However, with interest rates set to remain elevated and exports likely to struggle, we doubt this strength will last. Today’s figures …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia

Emerging Asia
17th November 2023
The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024

During the past decade, the global economy has transitioned out of an era in which globalisation was the key driver of economic and financial relationships into one shaped by geopolitics. Previously, most governments had believed that closer economic …
Global

China
16th November 2023
Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement

Rates on hold, tightening cycle at an end The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.50%), but warned it remained ready to raise interest rates further if necessary. However, with inflation likely to ease …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Philippines

Emerging Asia
16th November 2023
Close call for the BSP, but rates likely to be left unchanged

BSP on a knife edge The Philippines central bank (BSP) hiked interest rates at an unscheduled monetary policy meeting on 26 th October, and at the time warned the upcoming data on GDP and inflation (both published this week) would be crucial in deciding …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Philippines

Emerging Asia
10th November 2023
Taiwan: Would an opposition win boost the economy?

An opposition win in Taiwan ’ s upcoming presidential election could lead to a complete or partial reversal of the economic sanctions that China has imposed on Taiwan ’ s economy during Tsai Ing-wen ’ s presidency. The restrictions on tourism are the …
GDP and Activity

Politics and Institutions

Elections

Geopolitics

Asia-Pacific

Taiwan

Emerging Asia
9th November 2023
Philippines GDP (Q3)

GDP rebounded strongly in the third quarter of the year but we don’t expect this strength to last as high interest rates and weaker global growth lead to renewed economic weakness in the near term. According to the data published today, GDP rose by 3.3% …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Emerging Asia
9th November 2023
Indonesia GDP (Q3 2023)

Figures released today suggest that economic growth remained broadly stable last quarter, but we don’t have much faith in the official data. Our own in-house activity tracker shows that the economy is performing worse than what the official data suggest. …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Emerging Asia
6th November 2023
Korea inflation concerns, rates to stay high in Pakistan

Headline inflation rises again Figures published this week for Korea show that headline inflation rose from 3.7% y/y in September to 3.8% last month – a third consecutive monthly rise. Inflation has now been above the BoK’s target for 31 consecutive …
Inflation

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Korea

Pakistan

Emerging Asia
3rd November 2023
Malaysia Monetary Policy Decision (November)

Despite the sharp downward pressure on the ringgit, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) left policy rates unchanged (at 3.0%) today. We expect the central bank to keep the policy rate on hold for the rest of this year and throughout 2024. The decision was …
Inflation

Monetary Policy

Central Bank Meeting

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia

Emerging Asia
2nd November 2023
Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade

The October PMIs for Emerging Asia generally dropped back further inside contractionary territory. The outlook for manufacturing in the region remains bleak in the near term as elevated inventory levels and weaker foreign demand are set to curtail …
GDP and Activity

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

Emerging Asia
1st November 2023
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Oct. 2023)

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) …
Asia-Pacific

Emerging Asia
31st October 2023
Taiwan GDP (Q3)

Economic growth in Taiwan accelerated sharply in Q3, driven primarily by a jump in exports. However, we don’t think the strength of the recovery will last – we expect growth to slow over the next two quarters due to renewed weakness in external demand and …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Taiwan

Emerging Asia
31st October 2023
Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April

Taiwan’s growth moderated in Q3 Activity data published this week for Taiwan paint a mixed picture of the economy. Consumer demand is coming off the boil but exports have rebounded. More details will be available in the Q3 GDP figures due next week. …
GDP and Activity

Inflation

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia

Pakistan

Philippines

Singapore

Taiwan

Emerging Asia
27th October 2023
Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement

The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today raised its main policy rate by 25 bps (to 6.50%) in an out-of-cycle interest rate decision. While we had expected an interest rate hike at the upcoming scheduled meeting in mid-November, today’s out of cycle …
Inflation

Monetary Policy

Central Bank Meeting

Asia-Pacific

Philippines

Emerging Asia
26th October 2023
Korea GDP (Q3)

Economic growth in Korea was stronger than expected in Q3 but we think the economy is set to weaken in the near term as support from external demand fades while tight fiscal and monetary policy continue to curtail domestic demand. According to the advance …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Korea

Emerging Asia
26th October 2023
Indonesia election – what is at stake?

Reforms introduced by President Joko Widodo (commonly known as Jokowi) should enable the economy to continue growing rapidly once he steps down next year. The key question as the election approaches is whether his successor will build on the progress he …
Politics and Institutions

Elections

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Emerging Asia
24th October 2023
How will policymakers react to weaker currencies?

Continued currency weakness Asian currencies have continued to weaken against the US dollar over the past week on the back of a further rise in US bond yields and growing concerns about the worsening situation in the Middle East. Most are now down by 1-6% …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Emerging Asia
20th October 2023
Malaysia GDP (Q3)

Initial estimate points to Q3 rebound, but strong growth unlikely to be sustained GDP figures for Malaysia published today showed that the economy rebounded unexpectedly in the third quarter of the year, with y/y growth increasing to 3.3% from 2.9% the …
GDP and Activity

Inflation

Asia-Pacific

Malaysia
20th October 2023
“One and done” in Indonesia

In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.0%) in an attempt to support the currency. But there is a good chance this will be a case of “one and done”. Our forecast is that US bond yields will drop back over …
Monetary Policy

Indonesia

Emerging Asia
19th October 2023
Indonesia Policy Rate (October 2023)

Surprise hike aimed at supporting the currency In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.0%), and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. However, with …
Monetary Policy

Indonesia

Emerging Asia
19th October 2023
First signs of a dovish shift at the Bank of Korea

The Bank of Korea today left its policy rate unchanged (at 3.5%), and while Governor Rhee left open the possibility of further interest rate hikes, there are signs that some members of the central bank are becoming more dovish. With growth struggling but …
Monetary Policy

Korea

Emerging Asia
19th October 2023
Korea Policy Rate (October 2023)

On hold again, central bank in no rush to loosen policy The Bank of Korea (BoK) today left interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) for a sixth consecutive meeting. The decision came as no surprise and was correctly predicted by 49 economists polled by …
Monetary Policy

Central Bank Meeting

Asia-Pacific

Korea

Emerging Asia
19th October 2023
Tighter fiscal policy in Malaysia , BoK on hold again

Malaysia budget to weigh on GDP, add to inflation Malaysia’s budget for 2024, which was unveiled in parliament today, envisages a modest tightening of fiscal policy, with the deficit set to narrow from an estimated 5.0% of GDP this year to 4.3% in 2024. …
Fiscal Policy

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Korea

Malaysia

Emerging Asia
13th October 2023
Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement, Q3 GDP (Adv)

The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy settings unchanged today which was in line with both our and consensus expectations. While another hold is likely in January, further falls in the core inflation rate and weaker growth are …
GDP and Activity

Monetary Policy

Central Bank Meeting

Asia-Pacific

Singapore

Emerging Asia
13th October 2023
Renewed inflation worries unlikely to trigger rate hikes

Headline inflation has jumped across much of Emerging Asia over the past couple of months on the back of rises in food and fuel prices. This won’t prompt central banks to resume tightening (the Philippines is the exception). However, the rise in inflation …
Inflation

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Emerging Asia
11th October 2023
Asian Tigers: AI boost will not offset drag from demographics

The Asian Tiger economies of Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong and Taiwan are likely to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the emergence of new AI technologies. But the boost will not be enough to offset the drag from worsening demographics, and we still …
Long-run themes and issues

Asia-Pacific

Hong Kong

Korea

Singapore

Taiwan

Emerging Asia
9th October 2023
MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines.

Singapore’s struggling economy Singapore’s economy has struggled in recent quarters, and only narrowly avoided falling into recession in Q2. Preliminary GDP figures to be published on Friday are likely to show the weakness continued in the third …
GDP and Activity

Inflation

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Philippines

Singapore

Emerging Asia
6th October 2023
Sri Lanka: further easing ahead

The central bank (CBSL) today cut interest rates by a further 100bps. With inflation low and the economy still very depressed, further easing is likely over the coming months. Today’s 100bps cuts take the lending and deposit rates to 10% and 11% …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Sri Lanka

Emerging Asia
5th October 2023
Korea: weak activity data but inflation worries mount

The latest activity data from Korea were downbeat. Although industrial production grew strongly, the manufacturing PMIs, along with the export figures and retail sales data, all point to continued weakness. However, with inflation rising again last month, …
GDP and Activity

Inflation

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Korea

Emerging Asia
5th October 2023
The bond market sell-off and the global economy

The sell-off in bond markets has taken a breather today, helped in part by softer data on the US labour market. However, the scale of the moves over the past week has invoked comparisons to previous financial crises that have been caused by sharp moves in …
Bonds

Monetary Policy

Global
4th October 2023
Korea: drag from weak construction set to continue

Construction spending in Korea is falling sharply as developers respond to an oversupply of new homes by cutting back on new projects. The sector’s weakness will remain a major drag on economic growth throughout next year. Property prices in Korea dropped …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Korea

Emerging Asia
3rd October 2023
Manufacturing PMIs, Korean trade, Indonesia CPI

The PMIs for September suggest that manufacturing activity across Emerging Asia remained weak last month. Worryingly, the PMIs point to a further rise in price pressures across the region, with the input and output price subcomponents both rising. The …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Korea

Emerging Asia
2nd October 2023
Indonesia’s bullet train, forecast revisions, AI Spotlight

Infrastructure remains a major weakness Indonesia’s first high-speed train line is due to become operational this Sunday, when a WHOOSH bullet train departs the Indonesian capital of Jakarta for the provincial capital of Bandung, 88 miles away. Journey …
Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Emerging Asia
29th September 2023
Vietnam: worst now over

Figures released today show that the worst for Vietnam’s economy is now over, but that growth remains subdued by past standards. With the economy on the mend, but inflation becoming a growing concern, we have taken out the rate cuts we originally had …
Asia-Pacific

Vietnam

Emerging Asia
29th September 2023
Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Sep. 2023)

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) …
GDP and Activity

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Emerging Asia
27th September 2023
Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting (September)

Final hike of the cycle The Bank of Thailand (BoT) today raised interest rates by a further 25bps (to 2.50%), but hinted this was likely to be the last hike of the cycle. With inflation below target and headwinds to the economic recovery mounting, we …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Thailand

Emerging Asia
27th September 2023
Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024

Overview – GDP growth across most of Emerging Asia has struggled over the past year and we expect growth to remain weak in the near term as tight monetary policy at home and subdued activity abroad weigh on demand. Next year should be a little better, but …
GDP and Activity

Inflation

Monetary Policy

China

Hong Kong

India

Indonesia

Korea

Malaysia

Pakistan

Philippines

Singapore

Sri Lanka

Taiwan

Thailand

Vietnam

Emerging Asia
25th September 2023
Thai budget, key messages from central bank meetings

Loose fiscal policy to support Thai growth Thailand’s new government this week unveiled a budget for fiscal year 2024 (Oct. 2023 – Sep. 2024) which envisages a significant loosening of policy. The centrepiece is a 10,000 baht (US$275) cash handout to all …
Fiscal Policy

Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Thailand

Emerging Asia
22nd September 2023
Taiwan Policy Rate (September 2023)

Policy easing pushed back to 2024 Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left its policy rate unchanged at 1.875% for a second consecutive month. Despite the poor outlook for growth, lingering concerns about inflation have prompted us to shift the timing of …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific
21st September 2023
Indonesia Policy Rate (September 2023)

Rupiah key concern for central bank Bank Indonesia (BI) today left its main policy rate unchanged at 5.75%, and made clear that supporting the rupiah would remain its main priority over the coming months. While there is still a good chance the central …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Indonesia

Emerging Asia
21st September 2023
Philippines Monetary Policy Meeting (September)

BSP unlikely to resume tightening cycle despite inflation concerns The central bank (BSP) in the Philippines today left its main policy rate unchanged (at 6.25%), but warned that it may need to resume its tightening cycle soon. While we think monetary …
Monetary Policy

Asia-Pacific

Philippines

Emerging Asia
21st September 2023
How to think about Taiwan’s election flashpoint

The weeks leading up to Taiwan’s presidential election in January could be marked by another rise in tensions with China. The most likely outcome of the vote is another DPP presidency. While Lai Ching-te would be a new pair of hands, his election wouldn’t …
Politics and Institutions

Elections

Geopolitics

Taiwan

Emerging Asia

Asia-Pacific

Emerging Markets
20th September 2023
Sri Lanka – on the mend

Recent data show Sri Lanka’s economy is now rebounding strongly from last year’s political and economic crisis. We expect the recovery to continue over the coming months, helped by the sharp drop in inflation, lower interest rates, a recovery in tourism …
GDP and Activity

Asia-Pacific

Sri Lanka

Emerging Asia

Emerging Markets
15th September 2023

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Nov. 2023)

Q3 strength unlikely to last, CBSL cuts again

Indonesia Policy Rate (November 2023)

Malaysia: Anwar failing to make progress on reform

Singapore: strong growth unlikely to be sustained

Thailand: steady growth ahead

BI on hold, Taiwan opposition parties unite

Malaysia: strong growth unlikely to last

The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024

Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement

Close call for the BSP, but rates likely to be left unchanged

Taiwan: Would an opposition win boost the economy?

Philippines GDP (Q3)

Indonesia GDP (Q3 2023)

Korea inflation concerns, rates to stay high in Pakistan

Malaysia Monetary Policy Decision (November)

Manufacturing PMIs & Korean trade

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Oct. 2023)

Taiwan GDP (Q3)

Taiwan’s economy slowing, MAS to ease policy in April

Philippines Monetary Policy Announcement

Korea GDP (Q3)

Indonesia election – what is at stake?

How will policymakers react to weaker currencies?

Malaysia GDP (Q3)

“One and done” in Indonesia

Indonesia Policy Rate (October 2023)

First signs of a dovish shift at the Bank of Korea

Korea Policy Rate (October 2023)

Tighter fiscal policy in Malaysia , BoK on hold again

Singapore Monetary Policy Announcement, Q3 GDP (Adv)

Renewed inflation worries unlikely to trigger rate hikes

Asian Tigers: AI boost will not offset drag from demographics

MAS on hold, inflation concerns in the Philippines.

Sri Lanka: further easing ahead

Korea: weak activity data but inflation worries mount

The bond market sell-off and the global economy

Korea: drag from weak construction set to continue

Manufacturing PMIs, Korean trade, Indonesia CPI

Indonesia’s bullet train, forecast revisions, AI Spotlight

Vietnam: worst now over

Emerging Asia Chart Pack (Sep. 2023)

Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting (September)

Economic weakness to prompt policy easing in 2024

Thai budget, key messages from central bank meetings

Taiwan Policy Rate (September 2023)

Indonesia Policy Rate (September 2023)

Philippines Monetary Policy Meeting (September)

How to think about Taiwan’s election flashpoint

Sri Lanka – on the mend