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UK commercial property is on the road to recovery and lending to the sector has been strong in recent months. But with yields set to remain stable, the rise in capital values will be modest over the next few years. Thanks to stronger rental growth the …
18th June 2025
Euro-zone GDP rose strongly in Q1 but the economy will struggle in the rest of this year as tariff front-running ends and higher US tariffs start to weigh more heavily on activity. Increased defence and infrastructure spending will then support GDP growth …
10th June 2025
We'll be discussing the outlook for UK fiscal policy and the wider economy shortly after the Chancellor's Spending Review is released in a 20-minute online Drop-In at 3pm BST on Wednesday 11th June. (Register here .) The strong start to the year shouldn’t …
4th June 2025
Note: we will be discussing oil, industrial metals tariffs, and more in an online briefing on Wednesday 4th June at 3pm BST. You can register here . Pressure picks up in commodity markets OPEC+’s announcement that it will continue to add oil to the market …
We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer outlook for the UK economy. This supports our view that a …
29th May 2025
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe have lost momentum over the course of 2025 and, while the region is relatively insulated from US tariffs, the risks to our growth forecasts have generally shifted lower this month. Some central banks …
22nd May 2025
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 2025) …
Euro-zone GDP expanded at a decent pace in Q1 but that was partly due to temporary tariff front-running effects. And while higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026, the boost will be smaller …
9th May 2025
Although our base case remains that the hit to UK GDP growth from US tariffs will be relatively small, the downside risks to our below consensus forecast for GDP growth of 0.8% in 2025 have increased. And the growing likelihood that the influence of US …
7th May 2025
US import tariffs have largely focused on China. For some EMs (such as India and South East Asia), this creates near-term opportunities to take US market share from China. But there will be offsetting effects if confidence has been hit. And EM commodity …
28th April 2025
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe are generally less exposed to higher US tariffs than other EM regions, but we have still become more concerned about the hit to growth this year from US trade protectionism. Alongside signs that wage …
24th April 2025
UK commercial property is relatively well insulated from the direct impact of US tariffs, but a higher risk environment will drag on investment volumes. Yield compression will also be limited, and that means the recovery in all-property returns will be …
23rd April 2025
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q1 2025) …
17th April 2025
Higher US tariffs will be a substantial drag on the euro-zone economy this year. Looser fiscal policy in Germany will give a small boost in 2026, but overall we expect the euro-zone to grow fairly slowly in the coming years. We also think that the tariffs …
9th April 2025
Europe Chart Pack (April 2025) …
8th April 2025
The easing in house price growth in both February and March suggests momentum in the housing market is waning. What’s more, as we now think the Bank of England will press pause on the interest rate cutting cycle later this year, mortgage rates may fall a …
2nd April 2025
Our View: The economies of Central and Eastern Europe appear to have ended Q1 on a positive note, and Germany’s fiscal U-turn has improved prospects for regional export demand – we have recently revised up our GDP growth forecasts slightly for this year …
31st March 2025
Gilt yields should fall back this year, but with property looking somewhat overvalued we doubt that will trigger much in the way of yield compression. That means the recovery in all-property returns will be weak by past standards. Thanks to stronger …
21st March 2025
Higher defence and infrastructure spending will support euro-zone GDP growth late this year and in 2026. But the boost will be smaller than some are hoping for and take time to feed through. So we expect the recent economic weakness to continue in the …
10th March 2025
Weak global demand a risk to OPEC+ plans The recent confirmation from OPEC+ that it intends to go ahead with the plans to gradually increase oil production from April has coincided with ongoing signs of weakness in global oil demand. Although OPEC+ has …
6th March 2025
While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a lingering drag from the previous interest rate hikes and …
5th March 2025
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2025) …
28th February 2025
The acceleration in house price growth in January suggests the housing market has maintained momentum as the wider economy is losing it. What’s more, our forecast for mortgage rates to fall further than is widely anticipated suggests the market will …
26th February 2025
Talks between the US and Russia have raised expectation about an end to the war in Ukraine, but we are not yet factoring a peace agreement into our forecasts. Even if a deal is reached, the macroeconomic implications would crucially depend on the features …
20th February 2025
Trump’s curveballs have limited sway in oil markets With oil prices back to where they were at the start of the year, the oil market has offered a collective shrug to the geopolitical curveballs thrown its way. Although Canada and Mexico have been granted …
10th February 2025
We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive “debt brake”. France’s budget deficit will remain very …
Despite the recent weak news on activity and the uncertainty around the global outlook due to Trump’s US import tariffs, the stronger news on domestic price pressures means the Bank of England will probably continue to cut interest rates only gradually. …
5th February 2025
Economies in Eastern Europe picked up a bit of momentum at the end of 2024, but we don’t think this marks the start of a sustained improvement. Timely indicators of activity have weakened in early 2025, and lacklustre external demand will remain a …
31st January 2025
The rise in gilt yields since the start of the year will weigh on transactions and put upward pressure on property yields over the next couple of months. But we still think risk-free interest rates will fall back later this year, which will help property …
22nd January 2025
While the economy lost all momentum at the end of last year, we still expect GDP growth to accelerate from 0.8% in 2024 to an above-consensus 1.3% in 2025. Admittedly, activity could be restrained if the increase in the government’s borrowing costs due to …
13th January 2025
10th January 2025
2024 likely marked the bottom in all-property values in Europe, but we expect further falls in the US in 2025. That said, US performance should improve further ahead, outpacing the euro-zone over the 2025-29 period. By sector, stronger rental growth will …
9th January 2025
Economies in Eastern Europe are struggling heading into 2025, and policymakers have limited scope to provide support. We think that stubborn inflation pressures and currency weakness will mean that interest rates are cut by less than other analysts …
20th December 2024
The fiscal loosening announced in October’s Budget means inflation and gilt yields are now set to be higher than previously expected over the next few years. That will limit yield compression, and the commercial property recovery will therefore be weak by …
19th December 2024
The sharp rise in transactions in October and the acceleration in house price growth in November suggest some relief rally or pent-up demand after the Budget is more than offsetting the recent rises in mortgage rates. In any case, if we’re right that Bank …
17th December 2024
EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary easing will continue but, outside Asia, high inflation …
16th December 2024
GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe. We also think that inflation will be below 2% in …
6th December 2024
The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already below-consensus growth forecasts have shifted further to …
28th November 2024
EM GDP growth ticked up in Q3 but is likely to fall short of expectations over the coming quarters as stimulus in China disappoints and still-tight monetary policy takes it toll. For most EMs, a universal 10% tariff on US imports – our working assumption …
27th November 2024
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 2024) …
21st November 2024
Our new forecast that Bank Rate will fall slower and not as far means that we now think mortgage rates will decline from 4.4% in October to 3.9% by the end of 2026, rather than to 3.5%. But we still think that mortgage rates will fall by more than most …
20th November 2024
GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that the economy is poised for a weak Q4. We expect growth to remain slow next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe. We also think that inflation will be well …
8th November 2024
The net fiscal loosening of £36bn (1.1% of GDP) in 2029/30 relative to previous plans unveiled by the Chancellor in the Budget means we now expect GDP growth of 1.8% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, compared to 1.5% in both years previously. But …
5th November 2024
The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP growth in many parts of the region looks as though it will come in below our previous expectations this year. That said, above-target inflation remains a concern, and we …
31st October 2024
Capital values are now recovering and, notwithstanding a recent rise in interest rates, will continue to do so. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to stronger rental growth the …
24th October 2024
We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a rotation in the shape of GDP growth away from consumer …
9th October 2024
Economic growth in the euro-zone slowed in Q2 and timelier data suggest that it weakened further in Q3. That, together with the fall in headline inflation below 2% in September, should prompt another 25bp cut by the ECB at its October meeting. With the …
4th October 2024
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q3 2024) …
2nd October 2024
Economies across Emerging Europe have struggled recently, and we forecast below consensus GDP growth in most countries this year. The export-orientated economies of Central and Eastern Europe will be held back by stagnating demand from key euro-zone …
26th September 2024
Yields have now peaked in most sectors and capital values are close to bottoming out. However, with not much prospect for yield compression the recovery will be weak by past standards. Thanks to stronger rental growth the residential sector will …
19th September 2024
