The weak run of activity data out of Emerging Europe continued over the past month and, while the region is more insulated from Trump’s tariff threats than some other EMs, the risks to our already below-consensus growth forecasts have shifted further to the downside since the US election. Trump’s victory also raises the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine, but a fragile end to fighting would be unlikely to provide relief to the economies of Central and Eastern Europe.
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