BoI stands pat as inflation risks remain strong Israel’s central bank opted to leave interest rates on hold at 4.50% today – in contrast to the consensus view for a cut – and the communications continued to emphasise upside inflation risks. Policymakers …
26th February 2024
Deflation in China has added to disinflationary forces in the advanced economies as its export prices have fallen sharply. The direct impact has not been huge, accounting for only a small fraction of the 4ppt drop in DM headline CPI inflation last year, …
Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa will strengthen a little this year but is likely to come in well below consensus expectations. OPEC+’s output cuts should gradually reverse from the end of this quarter but will keep a lid on economic …
Long-term forecasting is perilous ground for economists. Predictions of what will happen in the long run tend to revert to the mean, implying that trend growth returns to an average recorded over the previous several years. It’s another way of saying that …
The outlook for the UK economy is unlikely to be very different depending on which of the possible combinations of UK Prime Ministers and US Presidents this year’s elections deliver. Even so, there may be some nuances. This Update establishes a framework …
We estimate that in the near-term, the drag on Japan’s exports resulting from of a universal 10% US import tariff could be nearly offset by Japan gaining market share at the expense of China in response to a much higher US tariff on Chinese imports. …
For all the blustering about trade wars, the fact is that Donald Trump’s punitive actions against China during his presidency didn’t do much to hurt its economy. But it’ll be a very different story if he wins in November and makes good on his pledge to …
23rd February 2024
While we think that American exceptionalism in stock markets will continue this year as a bubble fuelled by enthusiasm around AI keeps inflating, we expect equities in other developed markets (DM) to fare quite well. Nvidia and the other “Magnificent 7 ” …
Key takeaways from South Africa’s Budget South Africa’s finance minister recommitted to fiscal restraint in this week’s Budget, but an inability to resist calls greater spending ahead of and after the election is likely to derail these fiscal ambitions, …
Wage data still offering reasons for caution The latest wage data released out of Poland and Hungary this week showed that labour cost pressures have remained very strong in parts of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). So despite another slew of …
There was no clear direction to prices this week, but a number of individual commodities benefitted from producers announcing cuts to supply. First signs of a pull-back in US natural gas supply Having plummeted in recent weeks, the price of US natural gas …
The tailwind of US equity outperformance appears to be fading for the greenback, as the DXY Index looks set to post its first weekly fall in 2024. A pullback after such a streak isn’t all that surprising, and an upside surprise in PCE data out of the US …
The encouraging January CPI data mean that the Bank of Canada’s April policy meeting is back in play for a potential interest rate cut, although it still seems more likely that the Bank will wait until June – unless the economic and labour market data …
Fed to delay first rate cut until June Fed to wait until June Based on comments from Fed officials this week, we now expect the Fed to wait until June to begin cutting interest rates. Moreover, when it does begin to loosen policy, we suspect that the Fed …
Venezuela’s inflation plunge In our last Weekly , we flagged Argentina’s inflation problem and the risk that things could get worse before they get better. Data out this week showed that Venezuela may be coming out at the other end of the tunnel. Headline …
Disappointing economic and fiscal forecasts from the OBR haven’t prevented the Chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, from unveiling a splash at previous fiscal events. This time last year, he was handed £14.5bn of headroom against his fiscal mandate to ensure the …
Funding boost could be large, if banks do their part China’s housing market is still struggling . High frequency data suggest that sales in major cities have ticked up since the start of the year. And price declines eased slightly in January. (See Chart …
Note: We’ll be discussing the UK commercial property outlook at a Drop-In on Wednesday, 28th February. Register here Property Drop-In: UK commercial property’s muted recovery | Capital Economics for the 20-minute online briefing. Overview – With property …
This week saw a raft of data releases as well as the publication of the ECB accounts . We think that there are three key takeaways . First, the broad trend of economic stagnation and disinflation in the euro-zone is continuing. The Composite PMI edged up …
Output falls slightly but doesn’t signal a downward trend The year-on-year contraction in global steel production in January masks a sizeable monthly increase in output in China and India. Production in both countries should grow further over the next few …
Trouble in Thailand Figures published earlier this week showed that Thailand’s economy contracted by 0.6% in the final quarter of last year. Thailand has experienced by far the slowest recovery from the pandemic in the region – GDP is now just 0.5% …
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q1 2024) …
Majority of MPC in no rush to pivot The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s February policy meeting released this week show the first signs of dissent as MPC member Jayanth Varma argued that a cut to the repo rate would be prudent to show that the committee is …
The fact buyers are using lower mortgage rates to borrow more, rather than spend less on repayments, is a major challenge to the view house price growth will be weak in the years ahead. If there has been a permanent increase in the amount households are …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. German economy still contracting The small rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in February left the index close to a post-pandemic low and suggests that the German economy …
Donald Trump’s previous tariffs did surprisingly little damage to China’s economy, but China may find it harder to shrug off the damage in a rematch. Mr Trump is threatening larger tariff increases if he is elected again. And the factors that cushioned …
Import volumes weakest since 2020 We’ve been arguing that Japan is not in recession even though GDP has fallen for two consecutive quarters. However, February’s soft flash PMI and the large fall in imports in January hardly instil confidence in the …
RBA won't hike rates again Flash PMI data released yesterday showed that Australia’s composite output index jumped to a 10-month high of 51.8 in February. The index is now consistent with annual real GDP growth of about 2.0% in Q1 (see Chart 1), which …
Februarys’ flash PMI surveys suggest that economic activity improved in Europe at the start of this year. But services prices pressures remained elevated, especially in the UK and euro-zone, meaning that the ECB and Bank of England won’t be in a rush to …
22nd February 2024
The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much worse things might get for bonds if Donald Trump is …
The latest monthly activity data suggest that Mexico and Brazil ended 2023 on a weak note, a trend we expect to continue this year. But we think the Andean economies are on track to stage a recovery. The big falls in inflation in the region are behind us …
All-property total returns will turn positive in 2024 but we don’t think the recovery will be much to write home about. Our UK Commercial Property team explained why in this special online briefing and highlighted key takeaways from their recent quarterly …
Lower mortgage rates have the desired effect on sales, but it won’t last The sharp fall in mortgage rates at the end of last year was the catalyst for existing home sales rising in January. But borrowing costs have risen again in recent weeks, which in …
India’s economy performed exceptionally well last year and the latest data suggest that it has made a flying start to 2024 too. While inflation eased last month, we think it will be a slow grind back to the 4% midpoint of the RBI’s 2-6% target range. That …
The stalling in services disinflation in recent months is largely due to technical factors and one-offs. If services prices continue to increase at their recent pace in month-on-month terms, the year-on-year rate will fall a little further in the coming …
We think victory for Donald Trump in this year’s US presidential election would lead to higher Treasury yields than if incumbent Joe Biden (or another candidate) won. In our view, another Trump term would also be a headwind for equities – especially …
Carbon price not out of the woods yet …
This report is the third of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It takes an in-depth look at the various factors that typically drive the EU carbon price in the short term. While supply …
This report is the second of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It sets out our approach for modelling the fundamental price of an EU carbon permit [1] over the rest of this decade. In …
This report is the first of a three-part mini-series that establishes a framework for assessing the outlook for the EU carbon price. It starts by explaining what an emissions trading scheme (ETS) is and how the ETS has evolved since its introduction in …
Set for a weaker first quarter The strong rise in December means that retail sales volumes rose by close to 5% annualised last quarter, supporting the preliminary estimate that GDP growth turned positive again. With sales volumes broadly unchanged in …
Tunisia: threat of messy crisis and default builds Tunisia managed to meet a Eurobond repayment this week but only by draining its already-low FX reserves. In the meantime, steps were also taken towards deficit monetisation, taking Tunisia further down …
Growth pick up is likely to be short-lived Nigeria’s GDP growth rebounded to 3.5% y/y in Q4 but we doubt that this strength will last. Tighter monetary policy, coming alongside the pernicious effects of further weakness in the naira and ongoing struggles …
Inflation drops back, March rate cut in play The drop back in Mexico’s headline inflation rate to 4.5% y/y in the first half of February leaves Banxico on course to begin an easing cycle at March’s Board meeting. That said, the rise in core services …
New governor committed to the tight policy stance The hawkish statement accompanying the Turkish central bank’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 45.00% today supports our view that a shift to monetary easing remains some way off and we still …
Carbon prices have been falling on the back of lower natural gas prices and reduced European industrial activity. There’s a case for recovery, driven by a combination of macro, market and regulatory factors – but when and how strong will it be? To mark …
Now that mortgage rates have stopped falling, can the recovery in house prices continue? What will that mean for transaction levels and mortgage lending? And following the record increase in rents last year, can they continue to surge in 2024? Our UK …
