Domestic weakness weighing on growth This report was first published on Monday 2 nd June, covering the official PMIs . We added commentary on the Caixin manufacturing PMI on Tuesday 3 rd June and Caixin services and composite PMIs on Thursday 5 th June. …
2nd June 2025
After another week of twists and turns in the Trump trade policy roll-out, Stephen Brown from our US team and Jonas Goltermann from our Markets team are on the show to talk about what comes next. In their conversation with David Wilder they touch on: …
30th May 2025
The dollar has stabilised overall this week amid continued uncertainty around US trade policy and questions around the fiscal package that is still working its way through Congress. Market participants appear increasingly to be looking through the latest …
Court rulings leave trade policy in disarray Although this week’s court ruling – that President Trump doesn’t have the “unbounded authority” to impose universal tariffs on other countries – has been temporarily stayed, there is a fair chance that even …
We have consistently argued that the influence of Trump’s tariffs on the UK economy would be modest. As a result, the impact on UK GDP of the eventual outcome of the US court ruling on the legality of the 10% universal tariff will probably also be small. …
A very brief reprieve The ruling by the US Court of International Trade this week (see here ), albeit quickly put on hold, raises the possibility that the US’ 25% fentanyl-related tariffs on non-USMCA compliant imports from Canada will soon be a thing of …
Tinubu’s two-year anniversary in power It’s two years since Bola Tinubu became president of Nigeria and with support waning, he’s announced ambitious spending plans funded by foreign loans. But with borrowing costs high, we suspect these plans won’t …
Higher GDP forecasts for 2025 and 2026 Data released today confirmed that the economy got off to a strong start in 2025 – GDP growth rose to 7.4% y/y, from 6.4% y/y in Q4 2024 (revised up from 6.2%). (See here for our Data Response .) Looking ahead, it’s …
A turning point for Mexico’s judiciary Mexicans head to the polls on Sunday to elect almost 900 federal judicial positions and thousands of positions at the local level. Roughly the same number of posts will be up for grabs in 2027. This huge …
China Chart Pack (May. 25) …
All-property capital values edged up by 0.1% in Q1, marking the first increase since mid-2022. Meanwhile, appraisal-based cap rates were flat after compressing by a slight margin in Q4 2024. We still believe appraisals have further to fall given the …
The polls ahead of the second-round run off of Poland’s presidential election on Sunday point to a very tight race, with the two remaining candidates sharing virtually equal levels of support. The president of Poland has little direct input into domestic …
Drop back in imports & consumer resilience point to big Q2 GDP rebound With imports slumping after President Trump imposed his tariffs in early April and consumer spending continuing to recover after this year’s unusually severe winter, we now forecast …
The latest twists and turns in the US tariff saga once again dominated the week. We responded to the court ruling that suspended Trump’s tariffs here . The news that tariffs have now been reinstated doesn’t alter our main conclusions. The latest legal …
Fall in domestic demand could still persuade the Bank to cut Despite the upside surprise to first-quarter GDP growth, the contraction in domestic demand means we are sticking to our view that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. The …
Bumper growth keeps door open for another rate hike The 1.4% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP was partly driven by a boom in the agricultural sector at the start of the year, which is likely to unwind. But it now looks like the economy is on course to expand …
Tariffs: like Ross and Rachel Another week, another episode in what now feels like a long running drama series on President Trump’s tariff agenda. This week’s episode revealed fresh twists and turns as the US Court of International Trade (CIT) ruled that …
“One Big Beautiful Bill” (but not for clean energy) The passage of President Trump’s fiscal package – termed the “ One Big Beautiful Bill ” – through the House of Representatives is another step back for climate action in the US. Indeed, the bill would …
Most emerging market equities have held up surprisingly well of late, and in fact broadly outperformed global equities. But we think further outperformance is unlikely, especially for commodity exporters. Emerging market (EM) equities have been remarkably …
Economy grew at a rapid pace in Q1 GDP figures for Q1 2025 show that India’s economy grew at a robust pace at the start of the year and we think that growth may remain strong over the coming quarters as lower interest rates filter through into the economy …
New president will have his work cut out Barring a major surprise, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party (DP) will be elected as Korea’s president when the country votes on Tuesday. Polls have narrowed in the past couple of weeks but still give him a …
We’re nudging up our forecasts for equities in most non-US developed markets, partly in response to our upwardly revised projections for the S&P 500 . But we still think they’ll lag equities in the US, if perhaps less significantly than they did earlier …
US tariffs on China likely to remain high Just a day after the US Court of International Trade ordered the removal of Trump’s Liberation Day and fentanyl-related tariffs, a federal appeals court put that ruling on hold. If the appeals court upholds the …
This report is part of our Future of Europe series. Read more analysis, explore the supporting data, and learn about our broader European coverage on the dedicated Future of Europe page. Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, …
Encouraging signs for the rebalancing process The slowdown in Turkish GDP growth, to 1.0% q/q, in Q1 and, more importantly, the fact that net trade is propping up growth provide positive signs that policymakers’ efforts to rebalance the economy and bring …
Firms upbeat about production outlook The latest activity data suggest that if anything, Japan is benefitting from trade tensions. To be sure, industrial production declined in April, but output of motor vehicles rose despite the 25% US tariff on auto …
We’re cautiously optimistic about the prospects for China’s stock market over the rest of the year, despite the clear headwinds it faces. It’s not surprising that China’s equity markets have been among the most volatile globally over the past day or so , …
RBNZ will loosen policy further still As virtually everyone had expected, the RBNZ cut its Official Cash Rate from 3.5% to 3.25% at its meeting this Wednesday. However, the revelation that one member voted to leave rates unchanged came as a surprise to …
Pullback in retail sales complicates matters for the RBA Despite the ongoing slump in consumer spending, we’re not convinced the RBA will cut rates as aggressively as markets are anticipating. The 0.1% m/m fall in retail sales was a much weaker outturn …
Japan’s economy shrugging off trade tensions If anything, the April activity data suggest that Japan’s economy is benefitting from trade tensions, which bodes well for our view that the Bank of Japan will hike rates again soon. Taking industrial …
Strong inflation opens up chance of July rate hike The Tokyo CPI showed a further broad-based acceleration in inflation in inflation, which suggests that the Bank of Japan may hike even earlier than our current forecast of October. Headline inflation held …
The latest data confirm that the world economy got off to a weak start this year. World trade has been one bright spot, as firms attempt to front-run tariffs. But business surveys have softened, and falling consumer confidence bodes ill for domestic …
29th May 2025
U-turns on benefit and welfare spending, increased pressure to ramp up defence spending and higher borrowing costs have left the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, in a sticky position. If she wishes to avoid a political backlash and/or an adverse reaction in the …
The surplus in the EU carbon market dampened incentives to decarbonise in 2024, and the likelihood that the surplus is maintained until 2027 will keep a lid on carbon prices in the near term. Further ahead, a sharp contraction in the supply of carbon …
Our new estimates based on trade in thousands of individual products suggest tha t rerouting helped to offset around half of the fall in China’s exports to the US during the first Trump trade war . If the US continues to impose high tariffs on China, …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (May 2025) …
Strong, but not unanimous support for June cut. Opinion is divided on what to do next. An early exit by Lagarde would not cause sudden shift in policy. A 25bp interest rate cut next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.0%, looks very likely. But divisions …
The South African Reserve bank resumed its interest rate easing cycle today, with a 25bp cut to 7.25%, and there was a marked dovish shift among the MPC, suggesting – as we have long thought – that the repo rate will decline further over this year. The …
We forecast a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May. Federal job losses may increase as severance periods end, but initial claims suggest any impact will once again be modest. We expect the unemployment rate to have held steady, while wage growth …
Despite a positive initial reaction in global stock markets to yesterday’s ruling by the US Court of International Trade (CIT), there is still plenty of uncertainty about future tariffs on US imports. So a really big boost to equities may not be on the …
Leading indicators suggest most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the change in stamp duty rather than any longer-lasting influence of the softer outlook for the UK economy. This lends support to our …
Yesterday’s US court ruling has added yet more uncertainty to the EU-US trade relationship and at face value has weakened President Trump’s position. But the risk of tariffs remains very real not least because sectoral tariffs, which are unaffected by the …
China’s turn to woo the Gulf The GCC-ASEAN-China summit underway this week contained a lot of platitudes, but it doesn’t change our view that the Gulf’s geopolitical alignment is tilting away from China and towards the US. For China, the summit was an …
In this Update, we answer several key questions about how the US Court of International Trade (CIT) tariff ruling might affect the US and other economies. The outlook may now rest on the decision of the Republican-stacked Supreme Court. The upside risks …
Falling inflation, downside risks to growth to prompt another cut to repo rate next week Another 25bp cut to 5.75% seems most likely Consensus has caught up to our long-held view of 100bps of cuts in this cycle With headline inflation now at a …
Although continued trade tensions have heightened economic uncertainty, they have had only a modest impact on consumer and business sentiment in the Antipodes. Indeed, we think the Australian economy will grow at around its trend rate over the coming …
There were few major changes in the May IPF Consensus Survey despite increased economic uncertainty. Total returns at the all-property level are forecast to be around 8.0% p.a. over 2025-29, which leaves our forecast of 7.5% p.a. toward the bottom end of …
We suspect most of the recent weakness in housing demand and prices is due to the temporary influence of the rise in stamp duty on 1st April rather than any longer-lasting influence from the softer outlook for the UK economy. This supports our view that a …
