Tariffs will not fix decades-long manufacturing decline

The past three administrations have all attempted and failed to reshore lost manufacturing jobs and we expect the latest effort, with Trump expanding use of tariffs in his second term, to be no different. While specific sectors like motor vehicles and pharmaceuticals have some reshoring potential, on the whole a tariff-led approach to attracting foreign manufacturers to the US faces major constraints – namely, a tight labour market and significantly lower production costs overseas – that even the promise of preserving tariff-free access to the US consumer market cannot overcome.