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New supply won’t have major impact on industrial rental growth

Despite a higher construction pipeline for distribution warehouses, we think that a high share of pre-let space, coupled with strong demand, means vacancy will only be 20bps higher over the next few years as a result. In turn, we don’t expect it to have a large impact on rents, though it does pose some downside risk to our forecast.
Sam Hall Assistant Property Economist
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US Commercial Property Chart Book

Another punchy quarter, but capital growth set to slow

Setting aside the drag from net exports on GDP growth, Q1 was another strong quarter for both the domestic economy and commercial real estate markets, highlighted by a record first quarter for investment volumes. But occupier demand is slowing in all four sectors (albeit from record highs in industrial) and the sharp hike in alternative asset yields is already squeezing property valuations. As a result, we think that investment totals should slow in H2 and commercial real estate yields, particularly in the apartment sector, will begin to rise.

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Southern apartment rent growth unlikely to last forever

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More from Sam Hall

US Housing Market Data Response

New Home Sales (Jul.)

After a run of declines, new home sales eked out a small gain in July. The recent weakness in sales data likely reflects homebuilders restricting sales as they try to catch-up with the surge in demand seen last year. We therefore expect sales to climb higher as supply improves, ending the year at around 850,000 annualised.

24 August 2021

US Housing Market Data Response

Existing Home Sales (Jul)

Existing home sales surprised on the upside in July, rising for the second consecutive month. But with demand easing and inventory at record lows, we doubt this is the start of a resurgence. Instead, we expect sales will resume their downward trend to around 5.6m annualised by end-2021.

23 August 2021

US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Property valuations stabilise in Q2

Following a sharp deterioration in the previous quarter, property valuations held steady in Q2. But while changes so far in Q3 point to only a slight worsening in valuations, we expect Treasury yields will turn a corner and rise to 1.75% by end-2021, which will squeeze property valuations further. Movements in valuation scores were split between sectors this quarter, with a worsening in valuations leaving apartments and industrial looking fairly valued whereas a rise in our scores for office and retail made these sectors look relatively cheap. But the bigger picture remains the same, as we think that “average” office and retail assets will need to see further yield rises before they truly represent good value to investors.

23 August 2021
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