Higher for longer to push all-property cap rates above 5%

On the back of upward adjustments to our 10-Year Treasury yield forecasts, we now expect to see a larger increase in cap rates. This will see office cap rates rise to over 6.5% by end-2024, pushing the peak-to-trough price fall for the sector to more than 40%. At the all-property level, this will mean cap rates rise by nearly another 100bps to peak at around 5.2%, driving total value declines of over 20%.

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