With the economy’s strength set to wane somewhat this year, Theresa May’s gamble to go to the polls to increase the Conservative’s majority may have been just in the nick of time. There is some evidence of a strong link between the state of the economy and the outcome of elections. As the chart shows, the Government has been pretty good at ensuring the economy is in a decent condition at the time of elections. And incumbent governments have been victorious against strong economic backdrops in the elections of 1983, 1987 and 2001 but lost power amidst economic weakness in 1970, in the first election of 1974 and in 1979.
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