Hopes of a positive start to talks on reviving the Iran nuclear deal were dampened after Iran announced plans to increase uranium enrichment, highlighting that negotiations have a long way to go. If the deal is restored, it would probably be a factor weighing on oil prices, but regional tensions probably wouldn’t ease much. Elsewhere, Egypt looks set to re-join JP Morgan’s GBI-EM later this year which could boost the local bond market but also result in further pound overvaluation. Finally, recent concerns about vaccines could slow rollout in the region, delaying economic recoveries.
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