Saudi slowdown deepened in Q2

Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed further in Q2, to just 1.0% y/y, as the drag from the oil sector intensified. We think that GDP growth will be even softer in the coming months and we’re comfortable with our below-consensus forecast of 0.3% for 2019 as a whole.
Virag Forizs Emerging Markets Economist
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Middle East Economics Update

Central Bank of Egypt keeps rates on hold for now

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kept interest rates unchanged at Thursday’s MPC meeting amid rising price pressures. However, we still think that inflation will slow in the final months of this year and re-open the door for the CBE to resume its easing cycle.

17 September 2021

Middle East Economics Weekly

Lebanon finally gets a government, Saudi education plans

The news that Lebanon finally formed a new government this week came as welcome relief amid the country’s economic, political and humanitarian crises. But there are still plenty of big hurdles to clear before the country emerges from its crisis. Elsewhere, the Saudi government is set to launch reform of the Kingdom’s education sector – an area of Vision 2030 we have long argued had been lagging.

16 September 2021

Middle East Economics Update

Jordan’s public finances a cause for concern

Jordan’s public finances deteriorated sharply last year and fiscal consolidation is needed to put the debt position back on a sustainable footing. Sticking to austerity may prove difficult given the economic and political backdrop and the composition of Jordan’s debt is also a cause for concern. But the likelihood of financial support from the Gulf and Western allies mitigates the near-term risk of default.

15 September 2021

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Africa Data Response

Nigeria Consumer Prices (May)

The second consecutive drop in Nigeria’s headline inflation rate, to 17.9% y/y in May, will probably go some way towards easing policymakers’ recent concerns about high and rising inflation. While we expect inflation to remain well above the central bank’s target for the foreseeable future, the MPC is likely to keep interest rates unchanged over the coming years.

15 June 2021

Africa Economics Focus

The perils of deficit monetisation in Nigeria

Nigeria’s government has turned to the central bank to plug ever larger budget deficits in recent years and policymakers are unlikely to kick their deficit monetisation habit, particularly if the fiscal position worsens next year (as we expect). This will deepen some of Nigeria’s existing economic woes, including high inflation, downward pressure on the naira and weak economic growth.

14 June 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

Filling gaps: vaccine supply in SSA & electricity in SA

Leaders of G7 nations meeting this week are ramping up efforts to provide more vaccines to the developing world, which – along with the prospect of larger supplies from China – could give a lift to struggling inoculation campaigns and economic recoveries in Africa. Meanwhile, South Africa announced further steps to address its chronic electricity supply problem that has long weighed on the economy, but the measures will probably take some time to bear fruit.

11 June 2021
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