The surprise announcement of a further 1.66mn bpd cut to oil output by OPEC+ will reduce GDP growth mechanically in the Gulf economies by around 1-2%-pts this year, although the corresponding rise in prices will boost fiscal positions. Saudi and the UAE, in particular, will have scope to loosen policy to support non-oil sectors. In North Africa, higher oil prices will push inflation higher and exacerbate balance of payment strains, raising the possibility of disorderly falls in currencies.
Drop-in: We will be discussing the OPEC+ decision and answering your questions in an online briefing at 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST today. Register here.
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