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Brazil IPCA-15 (May 2024)

The decline in Brazilian inflation to 3.7% y/y in the first half of this month, coupled with signs of easing price pressures in some core categories, will provide relief to policymakers at the central bank. The next meeting in June will be a close call. But on balance, these inflation figures suggest to us that Copom is more likely to opt for a 25bp cut in the Selic rate than keep rates unchanged.

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