Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2025)

The drop in Brazilian inflation to 4.5% y/y in November won’t prompt an interest rate cut at the central bank’s meeting later today (we expect the Selic rate to stay at 15.00%). But it does suggest...

10th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2025)

The rise in Mexican inflation to 3.8% y/y in November is unlikely to stop Banxico from cutting its policy rate by another 25bp next week. But it supports our view that the easing cycle will be more...

9th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q3 2025)

The further slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth in Q3, to 0.1% q/q, was driven by weakness in household consumption. We expect the economy to slow further in 2026 and with inflation set to continue...

4th December 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov. 2025)

The further decline in Brazilian inflation, to 4.5% y/y in the first half of November, combined with the recent weak activity data, mean that it’s looking increasingly likely that Copom will kick off...

26th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov. 2025)

The Mexican inflation outturn of 3.6% y/y in the first half of November, coming alongside the contraction in GDP in Q3, means Banxico will probably opt for another 25bp cut at its next meeting...

24th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Colombia GDP (Q3 2025)

The stronger-than-expected 1.2% q/q expansion in Colombia’s GDP in Q3 reflects continued strength in domestic demand and adds to reasons to expect the central bank to hold off resuming its easing...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Chile GDP (Q3 2025)

The surprise 0.1% q/q contraction in Chile’s economy was mainly due to weaker private consumption and exports and supports our view that the central bank will cut its policy rate by 25bp in December...

18th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Oct. 2025)

The slightly larger-than-expected fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.7% y/y in October won’t prompt Copom to kick off its easing cycle at its next meeting in December. But with the economy weakening...

11th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) cut interest rates by another 25bp, to 7.25%, today but the shift in its forward guidance suggests policymakers are now more cautious about committing to further rate...

6th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Nov. 2025)

The Brazilian central bank’s hawkish statement accompanying the decision to leave the Selic rate at 15.00% all but ends any hope of an interest rate cut before year-end. Our new base case is that the...

5th November 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional)

The 0.3% q/q contraction in Mexico’s GDP was driven by weakness in the services and in particular the manufacturing sector and should make Banxico consider another 25bp cut in the policy rate, to 7.25...

30th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Argentina Mid-Term Elections (October 2025)

The strong showing for President Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party is not only an endorsement of his reform agenda but will also substantially increase the LLA’s representation in congress, which...

27th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Oct. 25)

The small fall in inflation in Brazil, to 4.9% y/y in mid-October, is unlikely to materially change the central bank’s hawkish tone. The start of an easing cycle is approaching, but it’s likely to be...

24th October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct. 2025)

The dip in Mexican inflation to 3.6% y/y in the first half of October, combined with the weakness in the economy, means that Banxico is likely to follow through on its forward guidance and deliver...

23rd October 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil & Mexico CPI (Sep. 2025)

The small increases in inflation in Brazil and Mexico in September are unlikely to have a material impact on the next interest rate meetings in both countries. In Brazil, while an easing cycle is...

9th October 2025 · 2 mins read