Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico GDP (Q4 2024 Provisional)

The much larger-than-expected 0.6% q/q drop in Mexico’s GDP in Q4 is likely to strengthen the argument for a 50bp interest rate cut, to 9.50%, at next week’s Banxico meeting. That now looks like the...

30th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.)

Brazil’s central bank delivered on its pledge to deliver another 100bp hike to the Selic rate, to 13.25%, and another 100bp increase at March’s Copom meeting is all but certain. For now, we are...

29th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Jan. 2025)

Brazil’s headline inflation rate eased to 4.5% y/y in the first half of January, but signs that underlying price pressures continued to build mean that Copom will press ahead with another 100bp hike...

24th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan. 2025)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of January, to 3.8% y/y, means that Banxico is likely to continue its easing cycle next month. But with the Fed set to pause its pause its cutting cycle...

23rd January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Dec. 2024)

The fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate in December, to 4.8% y/y, coupled with the rebound in the real over the past couple of weeks, won’t be enough to stop Copom following through with further...

10th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Dec. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.2% y/y in December keeps the door open for another 25bp cut at Banxico’s February meeting. But a lot will hinge on moves on the...

9th January 2025 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Dec. 2024)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of December, to 4.4% y/y, gives Banxico room to continue to ease monetary policy. But we expect Banxico to continue to cut in 25bp steps, rather than...

23rd December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Mexico’s central bank unanimously decided to deliver another 25bp interest rate cut, to 10.00%, at today’s meeting and the statement flagged that the easing cycle will continue in the coming months...

19th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.)

Brazil’s central bank stepped up the pace of tightening with a larger-than-expected 100bp hike, to 12.25%, to the Selic rate and made clear that there will be at least two more 100bp increases, to 14...

11th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA (Nov. 2024)

The further rise in Brazil’s inflation rate, to 4.9% y/y, in November alongside the weakness in the real and strong economic growth mean that Copom is nailed on to step up the pace of monetary...

10th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Nov. 2024)

The fall in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y in November, combined with the relative resilience in the peso since the US election means that Banxico is likely to press ahead with another...

9th December 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil GDP (Q3 2024)

The strong 0.9% q/q expansion in Brazil’s GDP in Q3 will add to the central bank’s concerns that the economy is running too hot. Alongside rising inflation and the sell-off in local financial markets...

3rd December 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Nov. 2024)

The rise in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, to 4.8% y/y, in the first half of November was partly driven by a further increase in underlying core services inflation and means that Copom is likely to...

26th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov. 2024)

The larger-than-expected fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, to 4.6% y/y, alongside easing core price pressures and the relative resilience in the peso mean that Banxico is likely...

22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Nov.)

Mexico’s central bank delivered another 25bp interest rate cut at today’s meeting, to 10.25%, and it left the door open to further easing over the coming months, although a lot will depend on moves in...

14th November 2024 · 2 mins read