Outlook is not bright for euro-zone peripheral bonds

We think that government bonds in the euro-zone “periphery” will fare quite poorly in the next two years – particularly in Italy and Greece – as growth disappoints and deficits overshoot expectations; European elections raise concerns; and the ECB refrains from adding to its holdings.
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Global Markets Update

We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume

While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in yields to be particularly large in the US given our view that high inflation there will prove persistent.

14 October 2021

DM Valuations Monitor

Assessing the outlook for US equity valuations

We forecast that the valuation of the US stock market will deflate a bit further over the next couple of years, though we are not expecting a sharp decline.

8 October 2021

Global Markets Update

Commodity prices and global equity markets

We think the prices of most commodities will fall over the next couple of years, and that this will prove to be a headwind for many countries’ stock markets. But the strength of that headwind will vary significantly, in our view, even among the most commodity-intensive economies.

7 October 2021

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Emerging Markets Economics Update

EM easing cycles not all to do with the Fed

Financial markets have come round rapidly in the last few weeks to our view that EM monetary policy will be loosened further this year. But EM loosening cycles have much more to do with weak domestic growth and low inflation than the prospect of interest rate cuts in the US.

20 June 2019

European Economics Focus

Cyprus to outperform euro-zone, but risks remain

Cyprus has now recovered from the economic crisis of 2012-13, which was caused primarily by its oversized banking sector. While a number of risks remain, notably the high level of non-performing loans, we expect the economy to continue expanding more rapidly than the euro-zone as a whole for the next few years, and the public debt ratio to fall steadily.

20 June 2019

Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia Activity Data (May)

May’s activity data suggest that, following extremely weak GDP growth in Q1, Russia’s economy has failed to gather much momentum in Q2.

20 June 2019
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