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German Ifo Survey (Jun.)

The renewed decline in the German Ifo Business Climate Index for June provides further evidence that weaker demand is starting to affect manufacturing output. With inflation set to remain high and the country’s gas supply looking increasingly precarious, the chances of the country falling into recession this year have risen considerably.
Michael Tran Assistant Economist
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European Data Response

German ZEW Survey (August)

The ZEW survey fell again in August and is at a level consistent with the economy contracting. We now think a recession is unavoidable in the second half of this year as the impact of high energy prices on both households and industry takes effect. Europe Drop-In (18th Aug.): Winter is coming to the European economy – but how harsh will it get? Join this special briefing on the economic impact of Russia’s gas supply threat. Register now.  

16 August 2022

European Economics Weekly

Energy crisis hotting up

The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal-fired power plants. Next week, we expect to learn that employment increased slightly in the second quarter. Drop-In: Europe under siege – The economic impact of Russia’s gas threat Thursday, 18th August 10:00 ET/15:00 BST. Register now.

12 August 2022

European Economics Focus

Why we expect a euro-zone recession

We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be held back by a lack of policy support. What’s more, we think the biggest risks to our forecasts are to the downside, notably from Russia turning off the gas taps completely or the ECB failing to avert a sovereign debt crisis.

11 August 2022

More from Michael Tran

European Economics Update

Consumption to increase despite low confidence

Despite consumer confidence remaining extremely low, we now think household spending in the euro-zone will edge up in Q2. Excess savings and a tight labour market have helped to cushion the blow from higher prices and enabled households to release their pent-up demand for services. Markets Drop-In (22nd June, 10:00 ET/15:00 BST): Join our Markets team for this special briefing on the outlook for equities, bonds and FX and a discussion about revisions to our forecasts. Register now

17 June 2022

European Data Response

Euro-zone Industrial Production (Apr.)

The increase in industrial output in April only partially reversed the decline in March and shows that the economic fallout from the Ukraine war is still holding back production. With survey data pointing to demand beginning to fall, we think manufacturing output will be a drag on growth for the rest of the year.

15 June 2022

Nordic & Swiss Data Response

Sweden Consumer Prices (May)

The stronger-than-expected increase in Swedish inflation in May lends support to our forecast that the Riksbank will step up the pace of tightening. A 50bp hike in the policy rate now looks increasingly likely.

14 June 2022
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