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Poland Activity Data (Aug.)

Poland’s economy appeared to lose steam in August amid signs that global chip shortages started to weigh on industrial output and retail sales failed to reverse a dip in July. We still think that GDP will rise by a robust 1.5% q/q over Q3 as a whole but the early signs are that, even with inflation hitting a two-decade high in August, it’s going to take a little longer for a majority on the MPC to favour rate hikes.
Jason Tuvey Senior Emerging Markets Economist
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Emerging Europe Data Response

Russia GDP (Q1 2022)

The 3.5% expansion in Russia’s GDP in Q1 is consistent with a small contraction in q/q terms, and this will almost certainly be followed by a steep fall in output in Q2 as the effects of Western sanctions bite hard. For 2022 as a whole, we’ve pencilled in a 12% contraction in Russia’s economy, which would be the steepest downturn since the 1990s.

18 May 2022

Emerging Europe Data Response

Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q1 2022)

Q1 GDP figures for Central and Eastern Europe smashed expectations in Poland, Romania and Hungary and suggest that their economies were running hot at the start of the year. The war in Ukraine will dampen activity in Q2, but demand is likely to remain strong which will keep wage and inflation pressures elevated and require central banks to raise interest rates further than most expect this year. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

17 May 2022

Emerging Europe Data Response

Israel GDP (Q1 2022)

The 1.6% q/q annualised contraction in Q1 GDP in Israel was weaker than analysts expected, but it was more or less in line with our forecast and doesn’t change the bigger picture that Israel’s economy is operating in line with its pre-pandemic trend. With inflation rising and the labour market tightening, we expect the central bank to raise interest rates from 0.35% now to over 2% next year. EM Drop-In (17th May): Do current EM debt strains point to a repeat of the kinds of crises seen in the 1980s and 1990s? Join our special briefing on EM sovereign debt risk on Tuesday. Register now.

16 May 2022

More from Jason Tuvey

Emerging Europe Data Response

Turkey Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul.)

Turkey’s industrial production and retail sales figures for July suggest that, after putting in a better-than-expected performance in Q2, the economy made a soft start to Q3.

13 September 2021

Africa Economics Weekly

Good and bad news from SA, Tanzania gets IMF support

Data this week showed that South Africa recorded robust GDP growth in Q2, but there was little time to celebrate as a slump in manufacturing output in July has raised the risk of a contraction over Q3. Elsewhere, Tanzania secured financing from the IMF this in a further sign of good start by the new president, Samia Suluhu Hassan. Finally, the sharp fall in the birr this year drove Ethiopia’s inflation rate to 30.4% y/y in August. Currency weakness and the growing threat of an all-out civil war have increased the risk of a sovereign default.
CE Spotlight 2021: The Rebirth Of Inflation? We’re holding a week of online events from 27th September to accompany our special research series. Event details and registration here.

10 September 2021

Africa Data Response

South Africa Manufacturing Production (Jul.)

South Africa’s manufacturing sector suffered a larger-than-expected fall in output in July and, while more timely data point to a rebound in activity, the weakness in July has increased the chances that the economy contracts over Q3 as a whole.

9 September 2021
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