Expectations for the start of monetary easing cycles in Poland and Czechia strengthened this week and the debate now is about whether or not central banks will cut interest rates at their next meetings in September. We think this is a little too early, but we expect easing cycles to start in Q4. Meanwhile, data released in Central Europe this week provide encouraging signs that the downturn in retail sales may have bottomed out last quarter. Pressure on households’ real incomes from high inflation is easing quite quickly and we think that this will support a gradual recovery in consumer spending in the second half of the year.
Become a client to read more
This is premium content that requires an active Capital Economics subscription to view.
Already have an account?
You may already have access to this premium content as part of a paid subscription.
Sign in to read the content in full or get details of how you can access it
Register for free
Sign up for a free account to gain:
- Unlock additional content
- Register for Capital Economics events
- Receive email updates and economist-curated newsletters
- Request a free trial of our services